e-ISSN : 3026-0892 p-ISSN : 3026-1422 International Journal of Humanities.
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58578/IJHESS.
Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Sustainable Economic Development: Empirical Research in the Coastal Area of Kien Giang.
Vietnam Tuan Quang Bui1.
Trang Mai Tran2.
Huy Nhat Bui3 Vietnam Institutes of Economics.
Vietnam bqt313@gmail.
tranmaitrang610@gmail.
Submitted:
Jul 27, 2024 Article Info:
Revised:
Accepted:
Aug 17, 2024 Aug 20, 2024 Published:
Aug 23, 2024 Abstract Alongside the economic growth in various coastal regions, including Kien Giang, the area faces non-traditional security issues, most notably marine environmental pollution due to the impacts of climate change.
This study surveyed 130 households in several coastal regions of Kien Giang.
It employed a multivariate regression model to assess the implications and quantify climate change's effects on economic activities.
The findings indicate that most factors harm the financial activities of households living in these coastal regions of Kien Giang.
This paper underscores the significance of addressing the adverse impacts of climate change on local economies.
It highlights the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate these effects, ensuring the sustainable development of coastal communities in Kien Giang.
Keywords: Climate Change.
Saltwater Intrusion.
Household Income.
Kien Giang Volume 2.
Issue 3.
November 2024.
https://ejournal.
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0 International License Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui
INTRODUCTION
Coastal localities play an essential role and position in the country's socio-economic Coastal areas include many large cities with quite good infrastructure than inland areas.
A critical economic region of the country is receiving substantial investment and growth.
rich and diverse resources, an abundant labor source, and a convenient rail, waterway, and road transportation system.
are favorable conditions for receiving domestic and foreign investment capital.
So, the coastal regions have many advantages for rapid and dynamic economic development.
Practice in many countries worldwide has affirmed the role of driving force in promoting the entire economic development of coastal areas.
Kien Giang, a coastal province in southern Vietnam, is grappling with significant challenges due to climate change.
With a diverse landscape that includes plains, mangrove forests, and significant islands like Phu Quoc.
Kien Giang is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as storms, flooding, and saltwater intrusion.
The impacts of climate change not only threaten the natural environment but also pose severe risks to the economic development and livelihoods of the local population.
Saltwater intrusion is one of the most evident effects of climate change in Kien Giang.
As sea levels rise, saltwater penetrates further inland, contaminating freshwater sources and agricultural lands.
This has severely affected rice fields and fruit orchards, directly impacting farm productivity and farmers' incomes.
Additionally, water temperature and salinity changes have negatively impacted the province's aquaculture industry, a critical economic sector.
Climate change has also increased the frequency and intensity of storms and heavy rains, causing severe flooding.
This disrupts production activities and transportation and inflicts significant damage on infrastructure and homes.
Coastal areas and islands like Phu Quoc, which rely heavily on tourism, risk losing beaches and coastal ecosystems due to erosion and rising sea levels.
address these challenges.
Kien Giang has implemented various measures to adapt to climate change, such as constructing barriers to prevent saltwater intrusion, promoting sustainable agriculture, and protecting mangrove forests.
However, given the complexity of climate change, more significant investment is needed in research and the application of new technologies, along with close collaboration between government agencies, local communities, and international partners, to ensure the sustainable development of Kien Giang in the future.
International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui Literature review Climate change will cause far-reaching socio-economic consequences, affecting major economic sectors such as agriculture, energy, and healthcare and leading to changes in the supply and demand of goods and services of all sectors of the economy to varying degrees.
Higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and other climate changes .
hanges in regional precipitation, water cycles, frequency and intensity of extreme weather event.
will also impact aspects of life that are not primarily based on or related to economic activity, for example, human security, health and well-being, culture, human capabilities, and environmental quality (Carleton & Hsiang, 2.
On the other hand, the impacts of climate change are uniform across different territories with different natural and social conditions and adaptation conditions.
IPCC .
indicates that poorer populations, especially in agricultural societies, are likely to suffer the most.
In terms of sectors, agriculture and energy use are two areas with high levels of risk.
In the future, rising sea levels will cause significant losses in public infrastructure and private development, with substantial economic impacts on coastal countries worldwide.
However, different coastal environments will face unique hazards due to differences in geology, topography, regional climate, and development patterns.
The coast has a variety of landforms such as estuaries, beaches, dunes, low slopes, high cliffs, and steep mountains, and it also has development patterns from low to high density.
Coastal areas with lower elevations will be more vulnerable to flooding due to the combined effects of waves, storm surges, storm surges, high tides, and future rising sea levels.
On the contrary, areas with higher terrain, such as cliffs, bluffs, and coastal mountains, will risk coastal erosion due to solid wave attacks during high tides or when sea levels rise.
Future rising sea levels will lead to two main scenarios: First, low-elevation coastal areas will face more frequent and more severe flooding, followed by permanent inundation and the disappearance of beaches and coastal wetlands.
Second, in higher elevations such as cliffs, bluffs, and coastal dunes, waves will impact the base of these features more often, leading to increased erosion rates.
The economic impact of coastal hazards will vary depending on the area's level and type of development, including both public and private development.
One of the significant challenges facing protected and highly developed coasts is passive erosion.
Passive erosion occurs when beaches are gradually lost due to rising sea levels.
In contrast, the beach behind is stabilized by artificial structures such as seawalls, rock revetments, or Volume 2.
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November 2024 Tuan Quang Bui.
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Huy Nhat Bui construction works.
This phenomenon is especially worrying in armored coastal areas, where intense development has created tremendous pressure on the natural environment.
A good example is the southern California coast, one of the most developed regions with a length of about 325 km .
This is where millions of residents and tourists use the beaches every year, creating a significant source of income for the local economy.
However, around 38% of this entire coastline is now armored, and with sea levels continuing to rise, the problem of passive erosion and loss of beaches will become increasingly severe.
The disappearance of beaches affects recreational activities and tourism and threatens coastal infrastructure and assets (Phillips & Jones, 2.
Coastal protection measures such as the construction of seawalls and rock revetments, although they can temporarily reduce the impact of waves and erosion, lead to the gradual shrinking of beaches, reducing the areaAos natural sand beach (Defeo et al.
, 2.
This affects the landscape and coastal ecosystem and causes economic damage as beaches, which are valuable assets, are gradually wiped out.
With sea levels expected to continue to rise, highly developed coastal areas such as southern California will face increasingly more significant challenges in protecting their coastlines and sustaining development.
The balance between protecting infrastructure, maintaining beaches, and ensuring economic growth will become a complex problem for managers and policymakers in the context of increasing climate change (Griggs, 2.
Climate change and rising sea levels continue to be pressing issues on the environmental policy agenda, both nationally and globally.
However, one of the biggest challenges in assessing the impacts of climate change and sea level rise is the ability to synthesize and simplify complex data (Alves et al.
, 2.
In particular, moving from complex models of the individual effects to a set of indicators that are easy to understand and can be tailored to each region and industry is essential for informed policy decisions.
Currently, many assessment models use physical measures such as the number of people affected, the change in total crop growth, or the number of natural systems changing.
These metrics allow researchers and policymakers to specifically and directly assess the impacts that climate change has on natural systems (Pettorelli et al.
, 2.
For example, the number of people affected can help estimate social impacts, while changes in crop growth provide essential information about food security.
However, these assessment methods are mainly developed and widely applied in developed countries with adequate research systems and International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui Meanwhile, developing countries, which lack resources and technology, have only recently begun to access and deploy similar assessment methods.
This creates a significant gap in the ability to assess and respond to climate change between developed and developing Bridging this gap requires international cooperation, in which developed countries can support developing countries in building appropriate data systems and assessment models.
In this way, the international community can come together to develop more effective solutions to the challenges that climate change and sea level rise bring while ensuring that all countries can protect the environment and maintain sustainable development in the future (Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno, 2.
Kien Giang is one of the cities most threatened by climate change, in which saltwater intrusion significantly affects agricultural production.
Due to climate change's effects, drought and saltwater intrusion in Kien Giang have become complicated and tend to increase in both level and intensity.
Climate change has a severe impact on production, life, and the environment, which is an existential threat to the goal of hunger eradication and poverty reduction, the implementation of the millennium goals, and the sustainable development of the country.
Combined with industrialization activities, climate change strongly affects people's economic activities.
This study surveys and evaluates the effects of climate change and industrialization on the financial activities of households in Kien Giang to provide implications for reducing economic losses.
Economic benefits for families under the influence of climate change and industrialization.
METHODS
The study used a questionnaire survey method for households living in coastal areas of Kien Giang.
The questionnaire is designed in two parts, including basic information about the household head and questions for the Linkert scale with factors related to industrialization and climate change.
In part two, questions are scored from 1-5, with levels of 1 being strongly disagreed and five being strongly agree.
The study uses the OLS regression model to evaluate each factor's impact on households' economic activities in the coastal areas of Kien Giang.
The authors distributed 130 ballots and collected 120 cleaned ballots to conduct the research.
Volume 2.
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Huy Nhat Bui The hypothesis: Climate change damages land and household assets Climate change damages household economies through 02 main channels: .
Damage to family's farmland and residential land.
Damage to household assets .
ouses, machinery, tools for agricultural production, farming and fishing, etc.
The research model includes the following factors:
A6 = C 1*A1 12*A2 13*A3 14*A4 15*A5
Which includes:
A6: variable representing climate change that damages household land and assets.
A1: The independent variable represents precipitation A2: The independent variable represents the temperature A3: The independent variable represents salinity intrusion A4: The independent variable represents sea level rise A5: The independent variable represents storms and floods RESULTS Basic statistical results Primary statistical results on the demographic characteristics of the surveyed target group are shown in Table 1 below.
In the 120 survey samples, the number of men reached 1%, and women accounted for 47.
9% of the individuals surveyed.
Regarding the highest level of education that the survey subjects have graduated, the highest proportion is 39.
for individuals who have graduated from high school.
The remaining number is evenly distributed, with 21.
8% % graduating from university and 9.
3% of respondents graduating from high school/college.
The number of people with income from 5 million VND/month to 10 million VND/month accounts for the highest proportion with 47.
Ranked second is the number of people with income from 1 million VND/month to 5 million VND.
/month with 35.
The interviewees were spread evenly between 18 and 71 years old, and the average age of the survey sample was 43.
5 years old.
International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui Table 1: Basic statistical results Variable Sex Education level Average monthly income (%) Male Female Below high school High school Intermediate/College level University Under 1,000,000 From over 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 From over 5,000,000 to 10,000,000 From over 10,000,000 to 15,000,000 From over 15,000,000 to 20,000,000 Over 20,000,000 Source: Calculation results of the authors from survey data Regarding statistical results related to employment and income under the impact of climate change, 47.
7% of respondents had to change due to the effects of climate change.
Climate change reduces income for 56.
6% of respondents, 30% assess that climate change has no impact on income, and 8.
3% of respondents have increased revenue due to impacts.
Impacts of climate change: 4.
1% of respondents had a significant decrease in income due to these impacts.
Model results Check the reliability of the scale.
Cronbach's alpha coefficients of the scales in Table 2 show that the reliability coefficients are all satisfactory.
Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to eliminate trash variables.
Variables with a correlation of less than 0.
3 will be eliminated, and the selected scale must have an alpha reliability of 0.
60 or higher.
After that, variables with factor loadings less than 50 in EFA will continue to be eliminated.
Therefore, all scales meet reliability requirements .
6<0.
and are accepted for inclusion in exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to test convergent validity.
The results of scale reliability analysis show that Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient of all variables in the model is in the range from 0.
6 to 0.
8, so it is concluded that there are no junk variables in the model.
After checking the scale's Volume 2.
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The principal component method chosen for factor analysis with Promax rotation is the extraction method.
Table 2.
Cronbach's alpha coefficient of observed variables Code Variable name CronbachAos Alpha Rainfall Temperature Saline intrusion situation Sea level rise Storms and floods Climate change harms household economies Source: Calculation results of the authors from survey data KMO coefficient and sig coefficient Exploratory factor analysis for the independent variables shows that the p-value = 000 of the Bartlett test allows us to reject hypothesis H0 safely (H0: factor analysis does not fit the dat.
KMO index = 0.
584 shows a high model fit (Table .
Table 3: KMO coefficient and Bartlett's Test for factors Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy.
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx.
Chi-Square Sig.
Source: Calculation results of the authors from survey data International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui Table 4: Total Variance Explained Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings Loadings Compone % of Cumulativ Total Variance e % Total % of Cumulativ Variance e % Total % of Cumulative Variance % Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Source: Calculation results of the authors from survey data The factor analysis results showed that the variables were extracted into four groups, with the total variance extracted = 66.
54% > 50%, and the scale was accepted (Table .
Regression model results The study uses econometric regression results to identify factor variables that are statistically significant in explaining changes in willingness to pay at the =5% significance The hypothesis to test the significance of the variable is given as follows:
H0: yu = 0, ycycaycycnycaycaycoyce ycnyc ycuycuyc ycycycaycycnycycycnycaycaycoycoyc ycycnyciycuycnyceycnycaycaycuyc ya1: yu O 0, ycycycaycycnycycycnycaycaycoycoyc ycycnyciycuycnyceycnycaycaycuyc ycycaycycnycaycaycoyce If P-value< yu: refuse H0, statistically significant variable If P-value> yu: accept H0, the variable is not statistically significant.
Volume 2.
Issue 3.
November 2024 Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui The regression model produces Sig results.
F = 0.
000, which means that hypothesis H1 is statistically significant: climate change will damage household land and assets.
The model has an R coefficient of 0.
577, equivalent to the model being important at the 57.
7% level, which is within the acceptable level of an OLS regression model.
Table 5: Model summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted Square R Std.
Erro of the Estimate Durbin-Watson Independent variable: A5TB.
A3TB.
A1TB.
A4TB.
A2TB Dependent variable: A612TB Source: Calculation results of the authors from survey data Assuming that climate change negatively impacts household economies, the results from equation .
indicate that statistically significant climate change factors positively affect household production activities.
Among the independent variables in the model, two statistically significant factors are A3 Ae Saltwater Intrusion and A5 Ae Storms and Flooding, with P-values of 0.
00 and 0.
005, respectively.
The coefficient for A3 is 0.
359, indicating that for every 1-point increase in the impact of saltwater intrusion, household land and assets suffer an additional 0.
359 points of damage.
Similarly, the coefficient for A5 is 0.
meaning that for every 1-point increase in the impact of storms and flooding, household land and assets experience an additional 0.
366 points of impact on a scale of 5 (Table .
These results highlight the significant negative influence climate-related factors, particularly saltwater intrusion and extreme weather events, have on household property and assets, emphasizing the need for targeted measures to mitigate these impacts.
CONCLUSION
In Kien Giang, the two most significant negative impacts of climate change on household assets and land are saltwater intrusion and storms or flooding in the surveyed areas.
Regarding saltwater intrusion, the surveyed areas are scattered along coastal regions, where the scale, severity, and frequency of saltwater intrusion have heavily impacted these regions, particularly in agricultural production.
Although major storms or floods are less frequently International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Tuan Quang Bui.
Trang Mai Tran.
Huy Nhat Bui recorded in Kien Giang, rapid urbanization has increased urban flooding following heavy rains, making these two impacts more evident to the local population.
These effects have also negatively influenced household incomes, with nearly half of the respondents reporting a need to change their agricultural practices or shift from agriculture to industrial services due to the impacts of climate change.
Most residents believe climate change has reduced their income, not only because they can no longer farm as they used to but also due to the damage to their assets and land.
Based on the viewpoints of the 12th National Congress and the 10-year review of the implementation of Central Resolution 4 of the 10th Central Committee on VietnamAos Marine Strategy to 2020, the 8th Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee (October 2.
adopted the AuStrategy for Sustainable Development of VietnamAos Marine Economy to 2030, with a Vision to 2045.
Ay This strategy emphasizes that "Vietnam must become a strong maritime nation, thriving from the sea, developing sustainably, prosperously, securely, and safely.
sustainable marine economic development must be closely linked with ensuring national defense and security.
A significant new focus of the 8th Central CommitteeAos session on the marine strategy is the goal of sustainable marine economic development.
This is particularly important for the national economy, contributing to the nation's strength in the long-term and immediate struggle to protect sovereignty over its seas and islands.
As a coastal city.
Kien Giang has a relatively strong marine economy.
According to data from the General Statistics Office, the scale of Kien Giang's marine economy accounts for 49% of the overall economy.
This underscores the city's significant role in contributing to the national marine economy and its potential for further development in line with VietnamAos broader strategic goals.
To mitigate the impacts of climate change, it is crucial to raise awareness about marine environments and implement institutional and policy solutions to develop the coastal economy in seaside cities.
In facing these challenges.
Kien Giang needs a sustainable development strategy focused on enhancing its resilience to climate change.
Key measures include investing in green infrastructure, improving disaster risk management and forecasting systems, and implementing efforts to protect and restore coastal ecosystems.
These actions are essential for the city to overcome the adverse effects of climate change.
By integrating economic development with environmental protection.
Kien Giang can maintain its position as one of the leading financial centers in northern Volume 2.
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Huy Nhat Bui Vietnam while ensuring future sustainable growth.
Balancing economic progress with ecological conservation will help the city address current climate challenges and secure its long-term prosperity and stability.
Acknowledgments The article is a product of the Ministry-level project titled "Economic Aspects of Sustainable Development in Vietnam's Coastal Regions under the Impact of Industrialization and Climate Change.
", which is funded by the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) and managed by the Vietnam Institute of Economics (VIE).
Hanoi.
Vietnam.
References