Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ANALYSIS IN INDONESIA FOR 2008-2021
Listri Herlina1.
Palupi Permata Rahmi2 Universitas Indonesia Membangun (INABA).
Kota Bandung.
Jawa Barat.
Indonesia E-mail: listri.
herlina@inaba.
id1, palupi.
permata@inaba.
ABSTRACT
Economic growth is an indicator that plays an important role in determining the prosperity of a country.
This study aims to analyse the effect of growth of foreign debt, inflation.
Exchange rate, growth of poverty, and regional minimum wage on gross domestic product (GDP) in Indonesia for 2008 - 2021.
Data collected through library research from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia Reports.
Furthermore, the data was processed using descriptive statistical analysis and verification.
Ordinary Least Square regression analysis using EViews software approach was adopted for analyse the effect of independent variables on dependent variable.
The result shows that gross domestic product (GDP) is influenced by the growth of foreign debt, the growth of poverty, and the growth of the minimum wage.
This result is supported by the value of tstatistics < t table and also simultaneously through the coefficient of determination shows that the three variables above have a significant effect on the gross domestic product variable.
Keywords: GDP.
Economic growth.
Ordinary least square INTRODUCTION future economic policies.
Through GDP Gross domestic product as one of the economic condition of a country.
In simple terms.
GDP according to BPS is defined as the total value of the production of goods and services produced by all people or companies in a country, including added data, the government can make various policies to increase economic growth and reduce the number of poor people for the better, such as by increasing government spending, regulating taxes, interest rates and inflation, or through other policy value within a certain period of time.
As Southeast Asia's largest economy, usually one year.
The author defines GDP Indonesia Ae a diverse archipelago with as the value of goods and services hundreds of ethnic groups has recorded produced through the economic activities of a country which is calculated in a certain overcoming the monetary crisis in 1998.
period, usually one year.
GDP is a tool to Currently.
Indonesia is the fourth most measure the economic performance of a populous country in the world and the 10th country by looking at its growth.
The value largest economy in terms of purchasing of GDP can be used as input for making power parity.
Furthermore.
Indonesia has Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 made great progress in poverty reduction to The parties that provide foreign debt are:
below 10 percent in 2019 before the China.
Japan.
IMF.
World Bank.
Germany.
COVID-19 pandemic.
But the Indonesian ADB.
IDB, and others.
According to a economy affected by the pandemic where report by International Debt Statistics from itAos went from upper-middle income to the World Bank.
Indonesia is included in lower-middle income status as of July the list of 10 small-medium income Based on these conditions, this countries with the largest foreign debt in research will analyse the condition of the the world.
Indonesia's external debt ratio in Gross Domestic Product in Indonesia March 2020 was 36.
5% of GDP.
However, during 2008-2021 around 90% of foreign debt is dominated by long-term debt, so it is still free to look Literature Review for strategies to pay off foreign debt even The growth of foreign Debt though one day the payment period will Foreign debt or foreign loans are part of the Foreign debt must be managed total debt of a country obtained from efficiently and effectively in order to creditors from abroad.
The Recipients of improve the economy so that it affects the foreign debt include the government, increase in GDP.
companies, or individuals.
The form of Inflation debt can be in the form of money obtained from private banks, governments of other institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.
Foreign debt come from the government or the private sector.
Foreign debt will be useful if it can be used properly because it will be able to improve the economy of a country, on the other hand it will bring disaster if it not properly In general, inflation can be interpreted as a condition in which the general price level tends to continue to increase in a certain period.
Furthermore, according to BPS .
inflation is a tendency to increase the prices of goods and services Rising prices of goods and services are inversely proportional to the decreasing value of money.
Low inflation can spur economic growth which has an After the 1997 monetary crisis which impact on increasing GDP, on the other hand high inflation is like a ghost for a Indonesia's foreign debt continued to grow.
Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 country's economy.
Sukirno .
said rate is the price of one country's currency that inflation can have a negative effect against another used in conducting trade on society in the form of: a decrease in transactions between the two countries real income for people with fixed whose value has been determined by the incomes, reducing wealth in the form of supply and demand of each country.
money and labouring the distribution of accordance with the currency values In countries experiencing high prevailing in the currency market or what inflation, it can result in public distrust of is called the foreign exchange market of a the value of their currency and tend to country, the currency can be exchanged or shift their savings in the form of a stable foreign currency The exchange rate of the rupiah Indonesia experienced hyperinflation of 650% at the beginning of the New Order restructuring was carried out where the old money was declared invalid and every one old note worth Rp.
1,000 was exchanged for new money worth Rp.
1 and so on as multiples thereof.
Sukirno .
6: .
inflation can be distinguished in three forms, namely: demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation, imported inflation.
However, inflation that occurs as a result of printing and circulating too much money to development will jeopardize economic against the US$ is one indicator important national income.
This assumption very important for economic growth.
Gross domestic product reflects the added value generated by all business units in a country or as the final amount of goods and services generated by all economic units.
GDP
value is directly proportional to economic The more the value of the rupiah weakens, then GDP will decrease.
GDP that increases in line with Improved economic growth will support the value of the rupiah, on the other hand the balance deficit increased trade will make the rupiah The Growth of Poverty Exchange Rate Poverty and inequality may also interact to An exchange rate is the value of one nation's currency versus the currency of another nation or economic zone.
have a negative impact on growth.
USStiglitz .
and others have argued, inequality and poverty can undermine the Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 institutions that spread well-being to all their needs thus economic growth an area members of society.
In Indonesia, the will tend to increase.
Research conducted number of poverties is decreasing to below by Dewi .
stated that the Regional 10% but in 2020 and 2021 there will be a Minimum Wage (UMR) has a significant slight increase again due to the covid-19 to the economy of a region.
In the labour pandemic, but the size of the poverty is still market it is very important to determine the very low.
The benchmark for the poverty in amount of wages that the company has to Indonesia refers to people living below the pay its employees.
For this reason, the poverty line as of March 2021 with an minimum wage law stipulates the lowest income limit of IDR 472,525 per capita per price for labour that must be paid paid month or approximately IDR 15,751 per (Mankiw, 2.
According to Kaufman person per day (BPS: 2.
This is .
, the main goal the determination of different from the reference from the the minimum wage itself is to meet the World Bank which says that a person is standard of living such as for their health, below the poverty line if he has an income efficiency, and well-being.
per day for consumption of less than US $ Gross Domestic Product 9 .
ereinafter converted into the currency of each countr.
or equivalent to Rp.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Gross 28,500 if it is assumed one dollar.
United Domestic Product which can be interpreted States equivalent to Rp.
14,250, -.
as the sum of the value of goods and services produced through the economic Minimum Wage activities of a country is calculated in a Minimum wages have been defined as the certain period, usually one year.
Sukirno minimum amount of remuneration that an .
3: .
defines GDP as the value of employer is required to pay wage earners goods and services produced in a country for the work performed during a given in a given year.
GDP is one way to period, which cannot be reduced by calculate National Income.
collective agreement or an individual contract Minimum wage is one of the factors that can affect GDP, the maximum of minimum wage tends to provide opportunity for the community to meet Without decreasing of GDP growth will be difficult to encourage economic growth.
It is even more difficult if there is low GDP growth accompanied by high population growth.
Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 then per capita GDP may decline.
This According to Sugiyono .
, this means that GDP growth is not successful in descriptive research method was carried increasing economic growth.
Therefore.
GDP per capita describes a more realistic independent variables, either only on one condition of economic growth, especially if or more variables .
tand-alone variables or economic growth is in line with an increase independent variable.
without making in the population's per capita income.
comparisons of the variables themselves and looking for relationships with other RESEARCH METHODS Type of Data Verification Analysis The type of data used in this research is secondary data.
According to Sugiyono .
, secondary sources are sources that do not directly provide data to data collectors, for example through other people or documents.
The types of data used in this study are secondary data and quantitative data types obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency.
The Data is processed and analysed using statistical analysis through: developmental assumption test, hypothesis testing which includes: simultaneous test, partial test, and coefficient of determination Data Analysis Techniques and Hypothesis Testing Descriptive Analysis This analysis is used to determine how strong the influence of the independent variable (X) namely the growth Foreign Debt (X.
Inflation (X.
Exchange Rate (X.
Poverty (X.
Minimum wage (X.
, on the dependent variable (Y) namely Gross Domestic Product by using multiple linear regression analysis.
The research model is as follows:
GDP it = 0 1 growth of foreign debt it 2Inflationit 3Exchangerate 4 Povertyit 5 Minimun wage A Where :
GDP = Gross Domestic Product 0 = Constant 1- 5 = Coefficients of Regression Growth of Foreign debt = Percentage of foreign debt growth Inflation =The Growth of Inflation Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
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02 December 2022 Exchange rate = The growth of Exchange Where:
Poverty = The Growth of Poverty Ae 0,055791 - 0.
Minimum Wage minimum wage From The growth of GDP = -8.
the multiple linear regression equation above, it can be interpreted as i = Error Econometric regression results using the OLS .
The constant value of 8.
051802 is negative, meaning that if all the Table 1 Multiple Linear Regression Test Results inflation, exchange rate, poverty and Dependent Variable: GDP Method: Least Squares Date: 02/05/22 Time: 12:14 Sample: 2008 2021 Included observations: 14 the minimum wage are constant, the Gross Domestic Product will decrease Variable Coefficient Std.
Error t-Statistic Prob.
The regression coefficient for the Debt Inflation Exchange Poverty Minwage 0784 foreign debt growth variable is 568064 which means it has a positive value, this shows a 0028 unidirectional relationship between 0333 foreign debt growth and Gross R-squared Adjusted R-squared 0.
of regression 2.
Sum squared resid 46.
Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statisti.
Mean dependent var 6.
714286National Product.
It means that for dependent var 6.
every increase in foreign debt growth Akaike info criterion 4.
Schwarz criterion 179502by one unit, the gross domestic Hannan-Quinn criter.
880267product will increase by 0.
Durbin-Watson stat 2.
Sumber data : EViews 10.
The regression coefficient for the inflation variable is 0.
035834, which means it has a positive value, this GDP it = 0 1 Growth of foreign debt it 2 Inflation it 3 exchangerate 4 poverty it 5 minwage A shows a unidirectional relationship between inflation and gross national It means that for every one Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 unit increase in inflation, the gross Domestic Product.
It means that for domestic product will increase by every minimum wage increase of one unit, the gross national product will increase by 0.
The regression coefficient for the exchange rate variable is -0.
T AeTes which means it has a negative value, this shows a reverse relationship between the exchange rate and Gross domestic Product.
It means that for every one unit increase in the exchange rate, the gross domestic The regression coefficient for the variable growth of the number of poverties are - 0.
055791 which means it has a negative value, this shows a of the independent variable partially on the dependent variable is significant, the t test is used.
The results of the t test are presented in the following table Table 2 product will decrease by -0.
To determine whether or not the influence Coefficien Std.
Variable t Error t-Statistic Prob.
Debt Inflation 0.
Exchange -0.
Poverty -0.
Minwage 0.
growth of the poverty and Gross National Product.
This means that With a t table of 1.
every increase in the growth of the poverty by one unit, then gross The growth of foreign debt has a domestic product will decrease by - significant effect on GDP where the t-statistic 2,017 > t-table 1,833 with a positive relationship direction.
The regression coefficient for the This means that the higher the minimum wage growth variable is growth of foreign debt, the GDP 697315 which means it has a will increase.
Based on the table above, the unidirectional relationship between results show that partially inflation minimum wage growth and Gross has no significant effect on GDP.
Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 this can be seen from the tstatistical value of 1.
1108, this value is smaller than the t-table Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statisti.
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat 2.
value of 1.
Exchange rate growth has no From the table above, the Prob F-stat is significant effect on GDP where t- F count 0.
Because Prob.
4167 > t-table 1.
< 0.
Thus, it can be The growth of the poor has a concluded that simultaneously there is a significant effect on GDP where the significant effect of debt growth, inflation, t statistic is -4.
0613 > 1.
833 with a exchange rate, growth of the poverty and negative relationship.
This means the minimum wage to Gross Domestic that the higher the growth of the Product.
poor, the lower the GDP will be.
Classical assumption test in regression model for OLS.
The significant effect on GDP where the Series: Residuals Sample 2008 2021 Observations 14 t statistic is 4.
244 > 1.
833 with a positive relationship.
This means that the higher the growth in Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std.
Dev.
Skewness Kurtosis minimum wage, the GDP will Jarque-Bera 1.
Probability F-Tes The F test or simultaneous test is used to Figure 1 Normality test see whether or not the influence of the The results of the residual normality test independent variable is significant on the above are: the Jarque fallow value of 1.
dependent variable.
with a p value of 0.
5428 where > 0.
05 so Table 3 R-squared AdjustedRsquared of regression 2.
Sum squared resid 46.
that the residuals are normally distributed.
Mean dependent var 6.
Table 4 Multikolinearity Test dependent var 6.
Variance Inflation Factors Akaike info criterion 4.
Date: 02/05/22 Time: 12:30 Schwarz criterion Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
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02 December 2022
Table 6 Linearity Test
Sample: 2008 2021
Included observations: 14
Variable Coefficient Variance Uncentered Centered VIF
VIF
Debt Inflation Poverty Minwage The table above shows that the value of Centred VIF both Debt.
Inflation.
Poverty.
Exchange Rate, and Minimum wage are 1,596, 1,234, 1,382,2.
134 where the value Ramsey RESET Test
Equation: EQ02
Specification: GDP DEBT INFLATION
EXCHANGERATE POVERTY MINWAGE C
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values Value Df Probability t-statistic F-statistic 202972 .
, .
Likelihood ratio 0.
Prob value.
F count 0.
6660 is greater than the alpha level of 0.
%) then the regression model meets the assumption of is less than 10, it can be stated that there is prediction model.
ONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusion:
Table 5 Heteroskedastisity Test Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Based on the analysis that has been stated above, the conclusions generated are that in F-statistic 449306 Prob.
Obs*RProb.
Chisquared 654066 Square.
Scaled Prob.
Chiexplained SS 1.
223450 Square.
2008-2021:
foreign debt growth shows a positive relationship and has a significant effect on gross domestic product p value indicated by the value of Prob.
in Obs*R-Squared is 0.
Because the p value is 0.
2477 > 0.
05, then accept H0 or it means that the regression The number of poverty shows a negative relationship and has a significant effect on gross domestic product model is homoscedastic or in other words.
Regional minimum wages show a positive there is no problem with the assumption of relationship to GDP and have a significant non-heteroscedasticity.
effect on gross domestic product Journal of Business and Management Inaba (JBMI) E-ISSN 2829-5331.
P-ISSN 2829-6559 VOLUME 01.
NO.
02 December 2022 The sharp increase in foreign debt should be directed to economic activities that are truly productive and efficient so that they are able to increase gross domestic product and are able to repay debt and interest expenses when they due.
References