Awan Setya Dewanta1 Fakultas Ekonomi.
Universitas Islam Indonesia e-mail: adewanta@yahoo.
Abstract This study estimates recreational value of Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi (TNGM Ae Mount Merapi National Par.
in Kaliurang.
Yogyakarta with a travel cost method.
Since the visitors are not the frequent ones, the paper estimates the visitorAos utility using a categorical regression technique.
Applying in-depth interview on visitors from August 1st until August 15th 2009, the results suggest that the utility function for recreation at volcano national park is better estimated using the negative binomial distribution model.
It also finds that the economic value of recreation at volcano national park is Rp 222,000, and that the total consumer surplus for recreation national park is Rp 31.
2 billion.
Keywords: Travel cost valuation, binomial regression model, recreation national park valuation JEL classification numbers: D12.
L83
INTRODUCTION
So far, papers assessing the benefits of natural forest attraction, which uses travel cost method, assume that the number of tourist visits follows a normal distribution.
The statistics in our study suggests that the visitors visit natural forest attraction once or twice a year (Table .
Consequently the assumption of normal distribution cannot be maintained in estimating the value of the benefits from visiting natural forest attraction.
In addition to travel cost analysis approach, the distance from visitorAos hometown to the tourist destination and the time spent by visitors are of critical assessments to the accuracy of the proxy to value natural forest attraction.
With the availability of digital maps provided by Google, mileage and time required by visitors can be measured more accurately.
These precision measurements of distance and time enables to provide more precise measurement to the values of time and money spent by visitors as a consequence of making a selection of visit forest attraction.
Table 1: 1Distribution of Respondents Number Visit Arrivals First time Second time Third time Fourth time Fifth time Beyond fifth time Source: Data estimation.
Distribution of Respondents Number Amount Percent This paper is part of a masterAos thesis.
Great honours to Catur Sugiyanto.
Ph.
Muhammad Edhie Purnawan.
PhD, and Dra.
Wahyu Hidayati.
Si.
who have guided, examined, and shared comments on these thesis.
Table 2: Number of Visitors.
Mount Merapi National Park.
September 2008-August 2009 Tlogo Nirmolo Tlogo Muncar Gardu Pandang Domestic Foreign Stu- Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Summary Tourist Tourist dents Tourist Tourist Tourist Tourist September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 *) Source: TNGM, 2009, adapted.
Date The improvement in the calculation of the travel cost will be used to assess the benefits visiting the natural forests in the sights of Mount Merapi National Park (Taman Nasional Gunung Merapi - TNGM).
This natural forest attraction object is located at Sleman district and has been known as Kaliurang, which has been visited by many domestic and international tourists (Table .
During September 2008 to August 2009, the number of visitors is 140,252 people.
The objectives as well as benefits of this research can be explained as follows.
Valuation of natural forest attractions aims at determining the estimated economic value of Kaliurang natural attractions in TNGM.
By knowing the economic value of Kaliurang natural attractions in TNGM, local government and TNGM managers can offer or invite inventors and communities for the benefits of economic value development of TNGM.
The research hypothesis can be explained as follows.
Negative binomial regression model, as has been mentioned, is Since year 2004.
Kaliurang tourism object and the area have been named as Mount Merapi National Park by SK Menhut No: SK-134/MENHUTII/2004 signed 4 May 2004.
the appropriate technique to determine the benefit values of Kaliurang natural attractions in TNGM.
The benefit value, as indicated by the consumer surplus per visitor, is positive.
This positive surplus means that Kaliurang natural attractions in TNGM have provide benefit values to the visitors.
Some papers have investigated the topic, along with various possible tools for Iamtrakul et al.
construct an approach to valuate public park services to highlight the dominant functions of public parks from usersAo point of view.
Particularly, they investigate recreation behaviour of park users in Saga city.
Japan.
Their result shows a useful issue that plays a significant role in generating valuable economic information for local government policymakers to apply suitable management plans in maintaining quality of public park service in association with the preference of community to achieve the goal of life city.
Babulo et al.
investigate methods for valuation of the goods and services of enclosure in Ethiopia.
They find that the economic value of closed areas could be grouped into two broad headings, namely the use and non-use values.
Chaudhry and Tewari .
develop a general model depicting the rela- Valuation of Mount MerapiA (Dewant.
tion of the ratio of consumer surplus estimated in TCM and CVM with corruption perception index in the case of tourists from various countries with different world rankings in so far as their parallel economy and level of corruption are concerned.
They are motivated by the fact that in a developing country such as India the contingent valuation method (CVM) cannot always provide a correct valuation of recreational use benefits of an environmental resource given the huge size of the parallel economy involving different categories of middle to upper income group families which have the capacity to move as tourists.
Boyd .
attempts to value a recreational visit to surf beaches within the local urban setting of Mooloolaba beach.
Sunshine Coast.
Queensland using a truncated negative binomial individual travel cost model.
He considers income, on-site and off-site travel expenditure and time, party size, and employment status to explain visits.
He finds that the passive-use values of beaches are higher than those of national parks or forests.
Heberling and Templeton .
estimate an individual travel cost model for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSD) in Colorado.
They consider travel cost and income to estimate the They find a negative binomial model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification fit the data the best.
Techniques and applications of assessing the economic value of forest resources can be seen from the methodology used to obtain the data.
Based on the methodology, the variety of asset valuation techniques of natural resources and the environment are divided into three methods, namely revealed preference method, stated preference method, and benefit transfer method (Table .
Table 3: Assessment Methodology of Forest Resources and Environment Source: Pagiola et al.
METHODS
The methodology of valuation using revealed preference method is used when data is observed based on the peopleAos behaviour in reality.
On the methodology using stated preference, the data obtained from surveys on the consequences of choices or responses by people to the hypothesis questions environmental changes will occur.
3 Those three methods have their own approaches, applications, data and limitations, so that they can complement each other when doing the valuation of natural resources and environment as a 4 Thus, in general, the valuation of natural tourism park .
atural tourism recreation servic.
applies two approaches, namely the travel cost method and the contingent valuation method, while the hedonic price approach is more widely used for valuation of land price and public facilities at the recreation park.
This paper conducts the valuation of recreational benefits of natural forest Kaliurang in TNGM using travel cost method (TCM).
The tourist attraction proxy value is the cost required to achieve and enjoy the tourist attraction itself.
In this TCM approach, the individual performs two types of expenses, cash expenditure and value of 5 Cash expenditure is required to pay fuels, ticket fee, accommodation, and to buy foods.
Value of time is the valuation of Benefit transfer method is the valuation method to compare two or more assessments of the benefits from similar natural resources and environment.
For more detail, see Haab and McConnell .
2, 137-.
Bockstael and Freeman .
, in Myler and Vincent, .
5, pp.
Phaneuf and Smith .
Myler and Vincent .
5, pp.
, and Shiferaw et al.
5, pp.
TCM idea is contributed by Harold Hotelling .
, proposed in assessment of National Park Service in America, and later developed and formalized by Clawson and Knetsch, 1966, although TCM is still considered to be less comprehensive and less flexible in assessment compared to CVM.
Assessment using TCM is more focused on achieving assessing cost to the desired location (Rashev, 2003, pp.
time used to enjoy sights and adore the tourism object, starts from the places of stay until back to origin place before go to tourism object.
The time used in this model is an opportunity cost for the individual being unable to perform other activities while the individual decides to visit a tourism attraction.
The individual utility function with two constraints is written in equation .
6 (For further discussion, see Haab and McConnell .
, and Melichar .
subject to Maximizing the result from equation .
to the number of visits for recreation is the numbers of recreation visit demand function, namely:
v is the number of visits within a certain p is price or cost of visit, q is environment quality.
Y is income.
Z is socio-demographic characteristics.
Equation .
can be transformed into an econometric equation that can be estimated to get the coefficients of the factors that affect demand for recreation requests in national parks.
To estimate the model, equation .
rewritten as follows Note that x is consumption of private goods, v is numbers of trips into tourist attraction, q is the environment quality as a tourist attraction, z is the characteristic of visitors, w is wage rate, tt is time travel to the tourist attraction, ts is time to enjoy tourist attraction.
T is the amount of time used for the work and leisure time, pv is price/cost of money to a tourist attraction, and p0 is price or cost of money spent to enjoy tourist attraction.
Valuation of Mount MerapiA (Dewant.
SUM _ VISITi = 0 1T _ COSTi 2 EXPENDi 3 AGEi 4 EDUCi 5 NUM _ Gi 6 EC _ ACTi 7 EC _ AMEi 8 EC _ UNI i i i = 1,.
, n where SUM_VISIT is the number of visits of individual i at the sight.
T_COST are travel costs and time to and from the sight of individual i.
EXPEND are income or expenditure per month of individual i.
Variables for demographic characteristic of the respondents are as follows.
EDUC is the highest educational level of individual i.
AGE is the age category of individual i.
NUM_G is the number of group who had been invited by individual i.
The variables to measure the characteristics of perception of the environment are as follows.
EC_ACT is a variable for the activities of individual i on the sight.
EC_AME is a variable for the valuation of individual i for convenience of public facilities, and EC_UNI is a variable for unique perception of the sight for individual i.
Equation .
will be tested using a negative binomial regression model (NBRM).
This is because visitors tend to come to a tourist attraction once or twice in a year and are heteroscedastic.
The negative binomial regression modelwill be :
i= exp.
1T_COSTi 2EXPEND 3AGEi 4EDUCi 5NUM_Gi 6EC_ACTi 7EC_AMEi 8EC_UNIi A.
i , .
i is exp(A i ) .
A i is error terms, is a constant coefficient estimation, is the estimated travel cost of individual i coefficient, is the estimated monthly income of individual i coefficient, is the estimated highest education level of individual i coefficient, is the estimated age category of individual i coefficient, is the estimated number of groups of individuali coefficient, is the estimated activities of individual i in the sight coefficient, is the estimated valuation of individual i for convenience of public facilities is the estimated unique perception of the sight for individual i coefficient.
The value of benefits per individual, which is the average valuation of Kaliurang attraction in Mount Merapi National Park, is obtained by calculating the consumer surplus with the following formula:
, where the value is obtained from the regression NBRM model, is the estimated on a certain level of environment quality , a , value certain social characteristic , and .
or more detail, please see Haab and McConnell, 2002, p.
Alberini and Longo, 2005, pp.
Quantitative Data Collection Data used in the research of benefit valuation of TNGM natural forest is secondary and primary data.
The secondary data are obtained from Mount Merapi National Park Office archives and websites to give a general description and the determinations of number of respondents.
The primary data is obtained from direct interview data .
ith list of question.
to the visitors of TNGM which are 19 years old and above, to estimate the benefit values of Kaliurang natural forest attraction.
The direct interview survey with visitors were conducted on 1st to 15th August 2009.
7 The number of re-
spondents that can be processed are 323
RESULTS DISCUSSION
To get Kaliurang natural attraction valuation, the paper estimates negative binomial regression models using three variants, namely regression using all data of respondent visitors, visitors with many purposes, and visitors with single purpose to visit natural forest TNGM (Table .
Negative Binomial Regression Model Test Prior to this interpretation, the regression is tested using three states of testing (Cameron and Trivedi, 1998, pp.
44-45 and Winkelmann, 2008, pp.
Applying the Wald test with z distribution, the negative binomial regression model, which uses many purposes respondent data, does not pass the test because all the independent variables are not significant.
Independent variables on negative binomial regression model, which uses all respondents and single purpose respondent visitors, are significant.
Travel cost variable, expenditure per month of respondents, tour activities, and the number of groups who have been invited are significant with confidence level 5 percent, while the estimated coefficient of the variable presence of vegetation cultivation and variable presence of respondents to the path or road of TNGM environment are significant to 10 percent confident Thus, the price of natural forest attraction .
hich is approached by travel cos.
can be used to explain what respondents demand to visit TNGM natural attraction.
Table 4:7 Negative Binomial Regression Results Recreation Demand Mount Merapi Na8
tional Park in Kaliurang
Multi purposes Single purpose All responrespondent dent visitors Visitors Variable Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient T_COST 69E-06
72E-06
99E-06
EXPEND
EC_LTOUR
***
EC_VEGE
EC_HTRACK
NUM_G
Adjusted R LR index (Pseudo R ) Number of respondents .
Notes: Entries in *, **, and *** are significant at 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.
Source: Data estimation.
With the estimated per year visitors numbers of 140,247 people and at 5-10% confidence level, the number of sample visitors is between 271 to 384 respondents.
These respondents are from Telaga Muncar.
Telaga Nirmolo.
Kali Kuning, and Gardu Pandang.
Education Level and Age Category do not pass Wald test .
ith z distributio.
, thus eliminated from model.
Valuation of Mount MerapiA (Dewant.
On testing the independent variables simultaneously, the LR value ) reaches 7,017,707 for respondents with multiple purposes, and 434 for respondents with single purpose, which means very significant to reject H0.
This means that these independent variables simultaneously explain the demand for the visit numbers of respondents in TNGM.
The third test is the goodness of fit test .
ee Cameron and Windmeijer, 1996, and Winkelmann, 2008, pp.
the LR index for the detection of Pseudo R2 is high, namely 0,864380.
Pseudo R2 suggests that free variables can explain the average visit average numbers of respondents in TNGM.
Then Pseudo R2 value is consistent with the value of LR, and means that the regression is able to estimate demand for natural forest recreation TNGM in Kaliurang.
Valuation Interpretation Natural Forest Attraction From the regression results presented in Table 4, this research has been able to answer the hypothesis that the negative binomial regression model can be used to estimate the price or value of natural forest attraction TNGM, as indicated by travel cost coefficient .
s price of recreation service.
is negative and significant at 5% confidence level.
Negative travel cost shows that for each increase in travel cost.
TNGM visitors in Kaliurang decreases the average number of visits, in which every 1% increase of travel cost .
n units of million Rupia.
will decrease the average numbers of visit as many as 9.
82 percent.
10 Compared to respondents that the main visit to TNGM, the decrease in the average number of visits is Except the travel cost coefficient on negative binomial model regression, which uses data from multi purposes visitors, is not significant.
Calculated from E.
/ x = Oe 1E.
bigger, namely 22.
18 percent.
This implies that travel cost increases decreases the visitor numbers.
Value of benefits per individual, which is the average values of natural recreation Kaliurang in TNGM, is obtained by calculating the consumer surplus with formula:
, where value is obtained from the result of NBRM regression model, is the estimated average the number of visits on the level of income, demographic characteristic visitors, and perception characteristic visitors to a particular environment .
ee Haab and McConnell, 2002, pp.
161 and Alberini and Longo, 2005, pp.
Consumer surplus .
er visito.
, as indicated by the average visits divided by travel cost coefficient, is positive.
The positive value means that natural forest attraction of Kaliurang in Mount Merapi National Park provides benefit value for the individuals who visit TNGM Kaliurang.
The benefit values of Kaliurang TNGM are as follows.
To all 092879 is Rp 466.
000 per person per 69 y 10 Oe6 If the visitors of TNGM are 140.
585 people, then economic value of TNGM natural attraction in Kaliurang is Rp 62.
7 Billion.
For visitors with single purpose, the economic value is 220238 is Rp 222.
000 per person per 999 y 10 Oe6 If the visitors of TNGM are 140.
585 people, the economic value of TNGM natural attraction in Kaliurang is Rp 31.
2 Billion.
The difference indicates that the TCM approach to economic valuation needs to separate the visitors who have primary purpose to visit recreation object that is valued and visitors who have multi- visit of recreation objects.
Without the separation, the valuation on recreation objects will be over-valued.
Travel cost .
onsists of time cost and money cos.
spent by visitors .
s proxy of economic value or recreation services pric.
not just for economic value of TNGM recreation in Kaliurang but might also be economic value of another objects.
It is reinforced by regression coefficients on regression model, which uses data from multi purposes visitors .
isit many tourist attraction beside TNGM natural forest attractio.
, is not significant.
The findings could also be interpreted that when visitors are willing to pay the prices higher, then the visitors will also ask for higher utilities.
The utilities, where are gained in TNGM natural forest attraction, not yet commensurate with the value or cost that are paid, so that visitors chain the visit in natural forest attraction with another attractions.
Based on the results of survey, 48% visitors did not visit TNGM only (Table .
Visit in TNGM is one attraction of a series tourism attraction to be visited by 48% visitors.
Table 5: Priority Distribution/Recreation Destination Respondents Recreation Destination Amount Percent
Main destination TNGM
52,01
Agrowisata Turi
0,93
Malioboro/Kraton 5,57 Borobudur
6,81
Prambanan 0,93 Kya Langgeng
4,95
Kali Kuning 2,17 Training/Seminar 1,24 Beach
7,12
Visit relatives/friends 4,33 Tour around Yogyakarta City 1,86 Transit place to another city 1,24 Not mention anything 10,84 Total
323 100,00
Source: Data estimation.
Source: Data estimation.
Figure 1: Percentage of Respondents Activities in TNGM Location Valuation of Mount MerapiA (Dewant.
The condition is reinforced by the dominance of visitors with passive recreation activities (Figure .
Visitors, who do not have many choices of recreation activities, would prefer passive recreation activities rather than active recreation activities, such as hiking and swimming, which not many do it anymore.
Visitors with passive recreation activity have characteristics which are a couple and have thin wallet.
The condition becomes different when visitors can perform many active recreation activities in Kaliurang recreation attraction, so the visitors will need longer time to stay and enjoy the recreation services which are offered.
By longer time the visitors stay in recreation attraction, the economic values become higher than previous.
Higher the economic values of TNGM recreation in Kaliurang will provide another incentive for inventors and public to participate in the development of natural tourism TNGM in Kaliurang.
CONCLUSIONS
The economic valuation generated by this research did not reflect the total economic value of TNGM.
Another benefit of the existence of TNGM may have far greater value than the benefit of natural attraction itself, like the benefits of flood prevention, water resource and irrigation around Mount Merapi, and other benefits that can be generated from the existence of TNGM.
Obeying the total value of TNGM, this research found the following results.
First, consumer surplus per visitor was positive, which meant that Kaliurang natural forest attraction in TNGM provided benefit value for individuals with a single purpose, which was equal to Rp 222,000 per individual per If TNGM visitors were 140,585 people, then the economic value of TNGM natural attraction was Rp 31.
2 billion per Second, assessment on or valuation of natural forest attractions which uses travel cost analysis needed to strictly distinguish single purpose visitors and multi purposes Without separating the purposes, the conducted valuation would be overvalued.
Based on the aforementioned findings, the paper provided a couple of suggestions.
First.
TNGM managers and local government initiated or provided stimulus which improved the equipment or facilities of activities that can be used again, such as hiking path and it divided into several levels from beginner or children to advanced, looking for new water resources to relive swimming pool and also fishing facility, and special path for adventure with a mountain bike.
Second, for the development of research and further natural forest attraction.
TCM method with categorical regression model was practical to estimate the economic value of National Park recreation.
The result of economic value of National Park recreation could be a reference for managers and local governments to balance between natural forest preservation with additional income for local governments and societies.
REFERENCES