AWmadRifai MUSLIM FERTILITY IN INDONESIA
A FEATURE OF PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS
OF JAVA-BALI '
Akhmad Rifai Abstrak Studi ini mencoba melihat dan mengurai perbedaan dan faklor yang mempengaruhifertilitas muslim di Indonesia,khususnyaJawadan Bali.
Bersamaandenganitu, dicobapula melihat seberapadalampengaruh itu memberikankontribusipadafertilitas muslim tersebut.
Praktek dan kebijakanfertilitas secaraumum banyakberhubungan dan dipengaruhi oleh agama.
Coale.
mengemukakan cepatandan waklu transisifertilitas di Eropa.
Demikianjuga hal yang terjadi di negara-negaraSub-SaharaAfrika, penurunanfertilitas sangatteragamadi sana.
kebanyakanberagamaIslam.
Arab tingkat fertilitasnya lebih besar dari negaranon-Arab.
Sementaraitu, di negara-negaraIslam pun tingkat fertilitasnyajugatidak kalahbesardari negara non-islam.
Bersamaandengantingginya tingkat fertilitas ini, baik di negaraArab dan Islam,tingkat pendidikandan kesehatanpenduduknya Di Indonesia, jumlah pendudukmuslim dari tahun ke tahun terus mengalami penurunan,86.
3 persen tahun 1995(JawadanBali 92.
Namun secara absolut jumlah ini terusmeningkattahun 1995penduduk muslim Indonesiasekitar 167juta dan 1l I juta beradadi Jawadan This research was supported by an award from Cairo demographic Center' I am grateful to Prof.
Lee Bean.
Prof.
Arnany Mousa and Dr.
Ranaa Haider for thir valuable comments on earlier drafts of this paper.
Al-Jami'ah.
N o.
60/1997
Muslim Fertility in Indonesia Bali.
Sedangkantingkat fertilitas muslim Indonesiajuga masihyang terbesardibandingdenganyang non muslim.
lndonesiayang mayoritaspenduduknya Kebijakan kependudukan beragama Islam, mengarahpada pembangunansumber daya manusia.
Tujuannya agar pembangunannasional yang sedang berlangsunglebih efektif dan punya nilai lebih, serta meningkatkankualitas kehidupan Upayaini ditempuhdengancaramengontroltingkat pertumbuhan pendudukmelaluiupayapenuntnantingkat fertilitas dan mortalitas.
Melalui program Keluarga llerencana upaya ini telah banyak menunjukkan hasil.
Meningkatnya kesehatankeluarga.
erutama ibu dan ana.
serta terwujudnya keluargakecil bahagiadan sejahteramerupakan gambarandari keberhasilanini.
Keluargamuslim Indonesiaadalahyang Melalui penelusurandata dan melihatpadaberbagaiupayapenerapan program tadi, telah ditemukan bahwa ada perbedaangambaran fertilitas muslim pada masing-masingpropinsi di Jawa dan Bali.
Bali memperlihatkan angkafertilitas muslimnyayang paling tinggi, kemudian diikuti oleh Jawa Barat dan yang paling rendah adalah propinsi Jawa Timur.
Sedangkankonstribusipadamenurunnyaangkafertilitas, praktek pemakaian kontrasepsimodern menempatiposisi paling tinggi.
Konstribusi faktot postpartum infecundability menempatiposisi keduadan yang paling akhir adalahkonstribusidari indek perkawinan.
Indek perkawinan ini menunjuk pada semakin tingginya umur kawin pasangansuami istri muslim lndonesia.
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No.
ffi/1997 Muslim Fertility in lndonesia ^ Jtl o3[ r-'-$ f plJl r.
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-lili$Fl Gl:-ill -*t o:l clls-l L!-,ill ''tr-'i INTRODUCTION lndonesia is the largest archipelago and the fifth most populous country in the world.
It consists of five main islands and 30 smaller groups.
The new figure for the total number of islands is more,it'han 000 accordingto the IndonesianNaval Hydro-Oceanographic This figure is an increasefrom the official figure so far known, that,is The archipelagois on a crossroadbetweentwo oceans,the Pagific and the Indian, andbridgestwo continents,Asia and Australia.
This.
strategic position has always influencedthe cultural, social, political and economiclife of the country.
The archipelagois divided into threegroups.
The islandsofJava.
Sumatra and Kalimantan, and small islandsin-between,lie on the Sunda Strait which begins on the strait coasts of Malaysia and Indo-China, where the sea depthdoesnot exceed700 feet.
Irian Jayawhich is parl of the islands of New Guinea, and the Aru Islandslie on the Sahulstrait, which stretchesnorthwards from the Australian coasts.
Here the sea depthis similarto that of the SundaStrait.
The climate and weather of Indonesiais charactenzedby two tropical seasons, which vary with the equatorial air circulation:.
he Walker circulatio.
andthe meridianair circulation.
he Hardley ciro.
The displacementof the latter follows the north-southmovementof the sun and its relative position from the earth,in particular from the continentsof Asia and Australia,at certainperiodsof the year.
These,factors contribute to the displacementand intensity of the InterTropical ConvergenceZone (ITCZ) which is an equatorialtrough of low pressure that producesrain.
Thus,the west and eastmonsoons,or the rainy and.
seasons,are a prevalent feature of the tropical climate (Departmentof Information, 1.
AI-ldmi'ah,No.
60/1997
::227
AltnoilNfni Population Tbe population pollcy is dirwted towards development of the population as human resourcCsin ordcrthat the national development can be effCctive and vatuable, while the quality of life gradually improves.
Meanwhile, thc control ofpopulaion grcwth is carried out 6pugh efforts to lower the birth and mrtality rates, especially that ofinfant and child.
The efforts in particular havc bee,nimple,mentedthrough family planning p'rograms which also have thepurpose ofimproving the welfare of rmther and child and at thc sametime creating a small, happy and prosperous family (Goverment Regulation, 1.
The birth rate declined drastically from 33.
5 per l,(X)Opople in 1983 to 28.
7 in 1988 andlatelydecreascdto27.
3 in lgg0.
Inthemeantime, the fer'lility rale also declined from 4.
6 per 1,000 women of childbearing agein 1980to 3.
3 in l99O (INDONESIA1.
Several factors inchding a rising living standard,higher educational levels and irnproved health services,contributed to thebirth rate But the greatest proportion is attributeable to the increasing number of people participating in family planning, especially the new eligible couples.
Morever, contraception has become more widespread and eff*tive, making it easierto plan families.
and strerilization of men and women has also becomemore cornmon $NMNESIA,1.
According to the 1985Inter-CensusPopulation Survey (SWAS, 1.
, the expectation of life at birth for a man was 57.
9 years and 6 I .
years for a woman, feprCsenting ariseofabout 13yearssincetheearly 1960's, and7 yearsor more since the early 1970's.
The expectation of life for 1988was 63 yeam, and for 1990was estimated 64years.
Postponementof conception in marriages, and a trend towards later marriage have also becomemore popular.
The available data show that the averageagefor marriagerose from 20.
1 in 1980,to 21.
2 in 1985, l in 1987.
In the meantime,the growth of Muslim in Indonesi4 accordingto the censuses,has been going down in percentages but not in absolute numbers .
ee table .
ln 1980, lndonesia's Muslimpopulationof 87.
percentwent down to 86.
9 in 1985 and then became 86.
7 percent in 1990.
However, in absolute numbers,the Muslim population grew from 128,463,8.
and 156,389.
5$99.
(BPS, 1.
Al-lani' ah,No.
Muslim Fertility in lndonesia
TABLE 1
NUMBEROF MUSLIM POPULATION
IN JAVA.
BALI PROVINCE
n millio.
PROVINCE Jakarta West Java CentralJava Yogyakarta EastJava Bali 1 9 85 .
BALI
INDONESIA
( 8 7 .
t4 2 .
2s7 I I l.
* Projection.
Notes : Percentages in all Parentheses.
Source: CentralBureauof Statistics(BPS,1.
Someprovincessuchas Java-Balishowedinterestingtrends.
provinces did not show much change,some increasedand others decreased.
The Muslim populationof Jakarta,84.
increased 1 percent.
7 percent .
But intheprovinceof west Java the Muslim population dropped sharply from 98.
1 percent .
Muslim population in JavaBali itself is the sameas that in Indonesiaas a whole, where there from the year 1980to 1995,or have been some decreasesin percentages maybein the comingyears.
Al-lami'ah,No.
60/1997
mail Rifai Studies on Religion and Fertility It is generally recognisedthat religion has a profoundimpact ott fertility decisions and practices.
In reviewingthe resultsof the European Fertility Project.
Coale .
notesthat the churchplayed an important role in influencing the speed and tirning of the fertility transition in of binh control was one Europe.
He maintains that the moral acceptance of the necessary conditionsfor a major declinein marital fertility.
Similarly.
Lesthaeghe.
arguesthat in England,the church'sgradualac'fertility to fall more closely in comodation to the altered facts allowed line with what one might expecton the basisof formal economicreasoning'.
The various hypothesesregardingthe studieson religion and f'ertility can be dichotomisedinto the characteristicsand particularizedtheology .
The characteristichypothesiscontendsthat the effect of religious affiliation on fertility merelyreflectssocial,economic and demographicdifferences betweenthe membersof different religious Thus, when these social,economicand demographicdifferences are statistically controlled, the fertility differentialsby religious affiliation will vanish or be reducedto insignificance(Freedman,Whelpton & Smith, 1961.
Petersen,1.
The particularised theology.
r norm.
hypothesismaintainsthat religious differencesin fertility due to differencesin taught religiousdoctrines, so that a religion whose doctrines are pronatalist and proscribe contraception and abortionwill havememberswhosefertilities are higher than those of a religion whosedoctrineis not explicitly pronatalist and permits contraception(Goldscheideret al.
, 1988.
Kirb 1.
Thus, this hypothesis suggeststhat fertility differentialsby religious affliation are due to differencesin religiousgroup nonns about family size,norms regarding the proximate determinantsof fertility, as well as practiserelating to theseproximatedeterminants.
In Sub-saharan Africa, the region with the highest desired family size, birth rate, and annualpopulation growth rate (Mott & Mott, 1980.
Bongaartset al.
, 1991.
Goliber,1.
,Caldwell& Caldwell.
contend that the timing of fertility transitionwill almostcertainly dependon religious and secularchangesat the individual level and on alteredgoverAfrica may offer greaterresistanceto ment policies,and that Sub-Saharan which'have much to do with a rereasons fertility decline due to cultural ligious belief systemthat operatesdirectly to sustainhigh fertility'.
Al-l ami'ah.
N o.
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Muslim Fertility in lndonesia In Arab countries where the majority are Muslims, their fertility level is higher than in non-Arabcountries.
mran, 1.
Hence,he arso said that health status indicators in these countriesareworse.
The unusual features of Arab demographyhavebeenattributed to Islam and to the low status of women in the region.
one of the strongeststatement about the statusof Arab countriesas'negativeoutlets'comesfrom Caldwell's analysis.
In trying to decidewhat determinesthat a country shall become a superioror a poor healthachiever,caldwell finds that "the first contrast to strike the reader.
is the religionof the two groups".
contrasting Islam with BuddhismandHinduism,he arguesthat the poor health performanceof Islamic countries is the result of the influenceof their religion on the societalvaluesrelatedto women and children.
Arab countries discussedarethosecountriesin which Arabic is the official language,and predominantly Muslim (Obermeye r, 1.
In Islamic Countries,in the meantime,Lutz .
and Nagi .
notethat religionis the most importantfactorin the determination of fenility among Muslim women which seemsto be true to a great extent.
But obermeyer .
observes a weakerrole of religion in determining the fertility of Muslim women.
It is political will and powerof individual countries which will determinethe future fertility levels.
especially in the Arab Countries.
Pastdataalreadyindicateda decliningfertility among Arab women,exceptin a few countrieslike saudi Arabia.
Sudan,Syria,Iran,Libya, andYemen.
Muslim fertility has been found to be higher than that of nonMuslims (Mazur, 1967.
Kirk,1967.
Caldwell,1968.
Marras,1973.
Rizk.
other studies find rhe opposite(Gaisie,1972.
Mabogunje,1972:
Page, 1975.
Podlewski, 1975: Semba-jwe.
Bailey, 1.
Today Muslim jurists support measuresto prevent conception, and in several Muslim countries religious leadershave endorsed family planning programs.
Abortion and sterilization still meet strongopposition from religious authorities.
In India, one-sixth of its population are Muslims.
John and pat cadwell .
found that rhe Muslim fertility is higher rhan in other religions andthe resistanceto the family planningprogramis also stronger.
In their survey area.
the Muslims point out that their morality was divinely revealed,is spelledout in a Book, is immutable,andcannotbe influencedby govermentor bureaucracies.
Al-lami'ah,N o.
b0/1997 Akhtnad Rifoi Concerning fertility control in Indonesia,culture and religious values can create an important barrier for family planning practices (Warwick" 1.
, especiallythe first time it is launched.
Most Indonesians are Muslims and hold traditional cultural values.
Both Islamic and cultural traditions are dominantin decisionmaking regardinghousehold Nevertheless,from l97l to 1985,family planningprogramsthat coordinated private and semigovernmentalfamily planning activities succesfully increasedthe proportionof couplespractisingcontraception.
According to programstatistics,the proportionincreasedfrom 2.
8 percentin l97l to 62.
2percentin 1985(Warwick,1.
Studies on religion anddemographicissueslike feftility in Indonesia can be said to be very few.
Suyono et.
found that the highest proportionof contraceptiveusewas amongProtestants.
8 percen.
and the lowest proportionwas amongMuslims.
Also Papaneket al.
haveidentified that Jakarta'sCatholic and Protestantwomen have lesschildrenthan Muslim women.
Objectives of The Study This study will try to accomplishthe following objectives:first, examining the differential andproximatedeterminantof Muslim fertility within eachof the provincesof Java-Bali.
and second,examiningthe contribution of the main proximatevariablesto reductionof Muslim fertility in eachof the provincesof Java-Bali.
Data and Methods The main source of datawill bethe 1991Indonesiademographic and Health Survey (IDHS).
This surveywas conductedby the Indonesia Central Bureauof Statistics,the National Family PlanningBoard and the Ministry of Health covering27 provincesof Indonesia.
A sampleof about27,000householdswere selectedfrom the l99l Indonesia Demographicand Health Surveyto get 26,858eligible women.
among them, 22,909 were succesfullyinterviewed.
From this sample, there are 13,911Muslim respondents andof them,6,832Muslim respondents are located in Java-Bali.
With reference to the lndonesiaDemographic and Health Surveyreport (IDHS, 1.
,concerningthe equality of the data, it statesthat thereis no evidenceofsevere underreportingof the binh numbersof all respondents.
Al-lami' ah.
N o.
o0/1 997 Muslim Fertility in Inilonesia This study will only deal with the proximate determinantsof Muslim fertility in the provincesof Java-Bali.
In the analysis,Bongaans model of the proximate determinantsof fertility .
Bongaartsand Potter,1.
will be applied.
THE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF MUSLIM FERTILITY
Any detailed and comprehensiveanalysis of factorsinfluencing fertility requires a distiction betweentwo classesof determinants:proximate variables and socio-economicand environmentalbackgroundvariables.
the latter includes social, cultural, economic and environmental variables, andthe formerconsistsof all the biological and behavioralfactors through which social economic and environmentalvariablesaffect If a proximate determinantchanges,then fertility necessarily changes.
ssumingother proximate determinantsremainconstan.
,and this is not necessarilythe casefor a socio-economicdeterminant.
Consequently, fertility differencesamong populations and trends in fertility over time can always be tracedto variation in one or more of the proxi(DavisandBlake,1956.
BongaartsandPotter, 1.
The eleven intermediatefertility variables introduced by Davis and Blake .
and have been reclassifiedby Bongaarts.
into sevenvariablesandgroupedinto threebroadcategoriesas follows :
ExposureFactors L Proportionmarriedamongfemales II.
DeliberateMarital Fertility Control Factors Contraception Inducedabortion i.
Natural Marital Fertility Factors Lactationalinfecundabilitv Frequencyof intercourse Sterility Spontaneous According to Bongaarts,the proportion married is intendedto measurethe proportion of womenof reproductiveageengagedin sexual Any deliberatepractise- includingabstentionandsterilizationundertakento reducethe risk ofa conceptionis consideredcontraception, and the inducedabortionincludesany practicethat deliberatelyinterrupts Al -l ami'ah,N o.
Al,hmailRifai the normalcourseof gestation.
The absenseof contraceptionand induced abortibn implies the existenceof natural fertility.
The lactational infecundability is the period in which a breastfeedingwoman would remain infecundable.
, unable to conceiv.
after pregnancyuntil the normal pattern of ovulation and menstruationis restored.
The duration of the period is function of the duration and intensity of lactation.
Normal variations in the rate of intercourseis measuredby frequency of intercourse factor.
The variationsincludethosedue to temporary separation or illnessand excludethe effect ofvoluntary abstinencetotal orperiodic - to avoid preqnancy.
Women are sterile before menarche,the beginningof menstrual function, and after menopause.
Sterility refersto women'ssterility before reaching menopausefor raeasonsother than contraceptivesterilization.
Spontaneousintrauterine modality comesfrom the failure of all conception to resultsin a live birth .
bortionor stillbirt.
Bongaarts suggeststhat the abovefactors are not equally important in their effect on fertility.
Only four of them .
roportion married, contraceptiveuse and effectiveness,induced abortion and post-partum infecundabilit.
are the most important in explainingthe variations in fertility levelsamongpopulation.
According to Bongaarts,if all women are married throughout their reproductive period,usedno conception,had no inducedabortion and experiencedno lactational infecundability,they would achievetheir maximum fertility level approximately by 15.
3childrenper-woman,an average, with relatively little variation amongpopulation.
births perwomen.
The basic variables and concept used in the model can shown graphicallyas below :
LEVEL OFFERTTLITY
FERTILITY TNHIBITING
EFFECTOF:
Postpartuminfecundability Contraceptionand abortion Marriage TFR Al-Jami'ah,No.
60/1997
Muslim Fertility in Inilanesia betweenthe Fenility Inhibition Figure.
Relationships Effect of the Proximate Variables and Various of Fertility.
Measures The above figure is divided into 4 segments.
The one at the bottom indicates the observedTFR.
Moving upward,the height of the next segment indicatesthe level of fertility that would be if all womenwere in a union during the whole of their reproductiveyears.
otal marital fertility If no womenin union practisedcontraceptionor inducedabortion, fenility will ariseto top of next segment.
The height representsthe total natural marital fertility rate (TN).
The top segmentof the figure indicates the fertility level one would observeif noneof theproximatedeterminants is exertinga fertility reducingelfect .
, if all the indicesare equal to .
The fertility effectof the four most importantproximatedeterminants aremeasuredin the modelby fotrr indices: Ca.
Cc.
Cm, and Ci.
The model is as follows :
TFR:CmxCcxCaxCixTfWhere TFR = total fertility rate,Cm = index of Marriage,Cc = index of contraception,Ca = Index of induced abortion,Ci = indexof postpartum infecundability, and TF '=total fecundityrate .
or the detail see: BongaartandPotter,1.
The analysiswill be focusedonly on threeout of the four variables of abortionin of the model.
since no datais availableon the prevalence the Muslim populationin Java-Bali Indonesiaas a whole,andespecially in the The componentsof the maniage index aredemonstrated following table.
Al-lami'ah,No.
b0/1997 AWmad Rifai TABLE 2
AGE SPECIFICFERTILITYAND
TOTAL FERTILITYRATESJAVA.
BALI MUSLIMSFORFryE YEARSBEFORETHE SURVEY.
Age
Group
Jakarta
West
Java
Central
Java
Yogya
East
Java
Bali 4A-44
0 1 2
TFR
Source: Estimatedfrom the l99l IDHS tape.
Data table 2 indicates that the total fertility ratesGfR) differ from one province to another.
They range from 2.
9 births per-Muslim woman in East-Javato 5.
4 births in Bali province.
Age spesificfertility rates in each provincevary with the woman'sage.
The lowest childbearing rate is in agegroup 45-49or in the oldest agegroup i.
, 5 births per100- Muslim women, and then agegroup 40-44years.
Otherwise,fertility reachesa m4ximum childbearing is at the agegroups 15-19 and20-24 years in Bali province and at the agegroup 20-24yearsin CentralJava The marriage pattern is of significant importancein explaining the shape of the age specificfertility rates(ASFR), becausethe proportion of marriage variessubstantiallywith age.
This proportion is usually the lowest in the age group 45-49years,becausewomen will have been near menopauseages,and alsoreasonsof child care-costand future-cost, family size, health problems, and so on.
It is thereforeone of the principally correlative reasonsfor the relatively low fertility rate in this age Al-Jami'ah,N o.
60/1997
Muslim Fertility in lndwrcsia
TABLE 3
AGE SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITY AND
TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF JAVA-BALI MUSLIMS FOR FryE YEARS BEFORETHE SURVEY .
Age
Group
Jakarta
West
Java
Central
Java
YogYa
East
Java
Bali 1 0 2
0 1 6
TMFR
Source: Estimatedfrom the l99l IDHS tape.
A contribution,which cannotbe ignored,in the reductionof fertility rates is the proportion marriedthat usuallydeclinesin the older age groupsas a resultof marital disruption.
To eliminate the above fertility rates to only marriedMuslim women,the table .
will be relatedto the abovetable .
Table 3 showsthat the total marital fenility rates(TMFR) range 1 births per-Muslim woman in East-Javato 5.
5 births inBali Province.
The age specificmarital fertility rates(ASMFR) reacha minimum at all agegroups 4549 years,exceptin Bali province where the age group 40-44 years has lower ASMFR.
The ASMFs are at the age groups 15-19 and 20-24 yearsin Bali provinceand at the agegroup 20-24 years in Central-Javaprovince.
Table 4 indicates that the prevalenceof contraceptive use in Yogyakarta provinceis the highestproportion.
and the lowest .
in the Central-Java province.
ln Bali.
East-Javaand WestJava provinces are s.
o, slyo, and48o/orespectively.
Otherwisethe proportions of contraceptiveuse in theseprovincesarenot followed by the levels of its contraceptiveuse effectiveness.
The Yogyakartaprovince reaches a highestproportionin contraceptiveusagebut in the level of its Al-Jami'ah.
No, 60/1997 Alhtnail Rifai effectivenessit only reaches84 percentof third ranking.
The highestlevel of cdntrceptive useeffectivenessis obtainedby East-Javaprovincewhile the proportionof contraceptiveuseis in the third ranking, and the lowest level of useeffectivenessis in the Wesl-Javaprovince.
The averageduration of breastfeedingin the Central-Javaprovince is the highestduration.
6 monthsper-Muslim woma.
,while Jakarta is the lowest duration.
1 monthsper-Muslim woma.
If Jakarta has the lowest duration of breastfeeding,it is reasonable,sinceit is an urbanized provinceandthe proportionof womenworking has the biggest percentagein this provincethan that in other provinces.
Likewise, in the caseof averagedurationpatternof postpartuminfecundabilityis the same as the durationpatternofbreastfeedingrespectively.
TABLE 4
ESTIMATES OF FERTILITY MEASURERS,
AND PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS AND ITS INDEXES
JAVA-BALI MUSLIMS.
I 99 I
Jakarta Prop.
Using Cont .
Contr.
Use-Effect.
Total Abortion (TA) Mean Dur of Breasfeed Durationof Post-Inf.
Index of M (C.
Index of C (C.
Index of Ind.
Ab (C.
Index of Post.
inf(C.
ObservedTF ObservedTFR ObservedTM ObservedTN* EstimatedTN EstimatedTM EstimatedTFR West Java Central Yogya East Bali Java karta Java I 1.
9 r4.
7 r 5.
04 t2.
685 2,877
*TN = Total Natural Marital Fertility (Ci x TF) Source : Estimated from the l99l IDHS tape.
Al-lami'ah.
No.
60/1997
Muslim Fertilifu in Indonesia Table 4 also indicates the fertility inhibitingeffectof the proximate determinantson Muslim fertility, in the provincesof Java-Bali,and observed .
iom the l99l IDHS) total fertility rates(TfR) as well as the estimated total fecundity (TF).
The estimationof observedTFR and TF from examiningthe l99l IDHS arecalculated The first level of fertility inhibiting effect is marriage in all provinces, at an average90 percent.
The secondlevel is reachedby duration of postpartum infecundabilityin all provinces out of Central-Javaprovince.
The second level is obtainedby durationof postpartuminfecundability in all provincesout of the Central-Java province,i.
,insteadof the contraceptive Otherwise,the third levelis the contraceptive practicesin all provincesout of Central-Java ,insteadof the duration of postpartum infecundability.
It is important to note herethal the smallest fertility inhibiting effect in Yogyakartaprovinceis the contraceptive practice .
,since we know that the proportion of women using contraception in this provinceis the highestmagnitude.
This is a proofthat the contraceptive heresignificantly supportsthe fertility inhibiting factors.
TABLE 5
NUMBER OF MUSLIM BIRTHS AVERTED
FROM TF TO OBSERVEDTFR AND THE PERCENTI'AGE
CONTRIBI]TION OF EACH INDEX TTOR
JAVA-BALI.
I99I
PROVINCE
TF-TFRobsv Jakarta 04Reduction Birth Averted West Java 7o Reduction Birth Averted 74 4s.
CentralJava 04 Reduction Birth Averted Al-lami' ah.
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Al'hmadRifai Yogyakarta b/oReduction Birth Avened East Java o/oReduction Birth Averted Bali oZReduction Birth Averted Source: Calculatedusingdata from table 4 In the meantime,the observedestimatesand model estimatesof TFR have some different discrepanciesin all province.
Expect in Yogyakarta and Bali provinceswhere their discrepanciesare fewer, 0.
birth per-Muslim woman while in the other provinces 0-9 birth perMuslim woman.
It means that the difference of total fertility levels .
stimated and observe.
in Yogyakartaand Bali provinceshave a good fit of the model estimates,otherwise,the other provinceshave a poor fit.
One can alsolook at the observedtotal fecundability(TF), wherethe levels are far from the range.
births per-woman,as mentionedin Bongaartsmodel.
The data presentedin table 4 can alsodemonstratethe numberof births averted due to eachproximatedeterminantand its percentagecontribution as indicatedin the abovetable 5.
Table 5 showsthat the differencebetweenthe observedfecundity (TF) and the observedTFR in the varied provincesis the result of the fertility inhibiting effect of the proximate determinantsdemonstrated.
The magnitude of the fertility inhibiting effect being accountedfor by each proximate determinantin eachprovinceis given in the parentheses.
The percentagereduction in fertility from the observedTF to observed TFR in eachprovincestatesthat biggestreductionin all provinces,except Central-Java as more attributed to contraceptivepractices than other proximate determinants: where 50 percent or more of the reductionof contraceptivepractices are the provinces of Jakarta.
%).
Yogyakarta .
%\.
East Java .
%), and Bali .
%).
The provincesthat have not Al-lami'ah,No.
Muslim Fertility in lndmesia more than 50 percentin the reductionarewest-Java.
%) and centralJava .
For .
entral-Javaprovince,the biggestreductionis replacedby the postpartum i nfecundability contri bution.
At the same time, the reducrion of marriagepatternin all provinces is not morethan l0 percent.
EastJavaand Bali -provinces are not morethan 5 percent.
It meansthat the reductionof fertility inhibiting effect of marriage variableis a very small contribution, andthat it reachesl0 percentreductiononly in Jakartaprovince.
In the absolutebirths avertedallocatedby the marriagepetternfor all provinces are not morethan onebinh.
otherwise, the absolutebirrhs averted as contnbrrtedby the contraceptivepracticesrangefrom 4 to g births per-Muslim woman, a very high level of reduction.
A moderate birth reduction as allocatedby the postpartum infecundability factors rangesfrom 3 to 5 births per-Muslimwoman.
CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMENDATIONS
clearly, if this study is consistentwith the model and rooking at the discrepancies,the conclusionwill be that proportionmarried,contraception and pospartuminfecundabilityare not the most important proximate determinantsof the fertility, except in yogyakarta and Baii provinces, as indicatedin this finding.
9 birth per-Muslim woman in the TFR is not unusual.
andotherexistingmethodsfor estimations fertility arethereforepreferable.
The level variance in fertility that is not explainedby the three principal proximate determinantsmaybedue to severalfactorsaccording to BongaartsandPotter.
Errorsin the measurement of the proximatedeterminantsin general.
Errors in the specificationof the model.
In other words,the assumptions madethe modellessthan fully accurate.
Induced abortionthat is followedin the model,perhaps,resurtsin an upwardbias in the modelestimatesof TFR.
The table 5, although it givesthe other conclusionthat the program of Family Planning in lndonesiahas a significantrole in lowering the fenility levelin Java-Baliislands,it is still unreasonable.
Becausethe calculationof thesefiguresremainsdependingon the numbersin the table AI-Jami'ah.
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Al'hnnd Rifai Thus the table 5 cannolprovide a conclusionand the other methods.
r estimationsfertility arestill preferable.
In view of the aboveconslusionand anotherconsideration,sorne specificmeasuresthat govermentmay want to considershouldinclude :
Strong educationalcampaignsshouldbe mountedto educateand persuade the population to accept the benefits of small family size.
Meansfor achievingsmall family sizeshouldbe madeavailable.
mother andchild healthand family planningprogramsshouldbe integrated, wberever possible, in other sectoralareaswithin the framework of rural and urbandevelopmentprogrammes.
Specialattention shouldbe given to birthspacingandto a significantreductionof child deaths,which are alsoimportantdeterminantsof fertility.
Existing programmes to reducefertility needto be strengthenedand improved to achievetheir desired objectives.
However, attention should also be given to reduce problems of infertility and of child deathswherethey exist.
Where there are no clearprogrammesandpoliciesto regulatefertility, formulation of relevant policies should be given some consideration:
Women's social statusshouldbe improvedto enablethem to participate at all levelsin the socio-economic activitiesof the Action on the above-listedmeasureswould be of great help in improving the life of the Muslim peopleof Java'sprovinces,and lndonesia a"sa whole.
Many IndonesianMuslirn leadershave recently begun to changetheir perceptionof populationand family planningissues.
They no longer want to treat family planningprogrammesin isolation but as part of other programmesand policies on health,education,family welfare.
standard of living, employment, environmentanduseof resources.
This emphasizesthe revised approach to developmentwhich has to take into account population, environment andresources.
The ProvincialGovernchallengein its developmentefforts.
ment hasto face a considerable REFERENCES