International Journal of Humanities.
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Gold Rush 2.
0: US Defense Political Economy Amid Dollar Decline and Bullion Rise Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi Defense University.
Indonesia simamora@sp.
Article Info:
Submitted:
Revised:
Accepted: Published:
Aug 5, 2025 Aug 27, 2025 Sep 8, 2025 Sep 13, 2025 Abstract The global financial system is undergoing a profound shift that challenges the reserve currency dominance of the US dollar, driven by escalating national debt, persistent inflation, and intensifying geopolitical tensions.
This environment has triggered what can be described as AuGold Rush 2.
0,Ay marked by rising gold prices and declining confidence in fiat currencies.
A critical inflection point is evident in the fact that US debt servicing costs ($970 billion in FY2.
have surpassed defense spending ($886 billio.
, crossing the socalled AuFerguson Limit,Ay where great powers face heightened risks of decline.
This fiscal strain is further compounded by the AuTriffin Dilemma,Ay which requires persistent trade deficits to sustain global dollar liquidity while simultaneously eroding confidence in the currency and deepening debt Against this backdrop, the study examines how these dynamics reshape the US defense political economy by constraining budgetary flexibility, hindering modernization, and influencing strategic priorities.
Empirical analysis reveals a negative correlation between rising debt servicing obligations and defense budget growth, alongside evidence of central banks increasing gold reserves as a sign of de-dollarization.
The study concludes that weakening US economic hegemony carries significant implications for national security and Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025.
Pages 1102-1122 https://ejournal.
yasin-alsys.
org/IJHESS IJHESS Journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.
0 International License Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi global stability, underscoring the need for strategic recalibration in defense and fiscal policy.
Keywords: US Dollar.
Gold Rush 2.
Defense Political Economy.
Ferguson Limit.
Triffin Dilemma
INTRODUCTION
The global financial architecture is currently experiencing a profound transformation, marked by significant challenges to the enduring status of the US dollar as the world's primary reserve currency.
This seismic shift is driven by a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including escalating national debt, persistent inflationary pressures, and heightened international tensions.
These dynamics have collectively fueled a remarkable resurgence of interest in gold, a phenomenon aptly termed "Gold Rush 2.
0," which draws a compelling modern parallel to historical gold rushes where economic uncertainty consistently drove demand for tangible assets (Liu et al.
, 2.
To illustrate the scale of these pressures, key statistics highlight the fiscal-monetary nexus reshaping the US economy.
In FY2024, net interest payments on national debt reached $950 billion, surpassing defense spending at $826 billion, a historic milestone signaling the crossing of the Ferguson Limit, and projections for FY2025 indicate further divergence with interest at $952 billion versus $842-852 billion in defense outlays.
Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined from 110 in 2000 to 97.
5 in September 2025, reflecting waning global confidence amid persistent trade deficits that widened to $78.
3 billion in July 2025 alone .
nnual projection $1.
1 trillio.
, underscoring the Triffin Dilemma's role in supplying dollar liquidity at the cost of domestic stability.
The "Gold Rush 2.
0" is evident in gold prices averaging $2,600/oz in 2025 .
p 25% YTD) and central banks purchasing 1,200 tonnes in H1 2025, the fourth straight year of record accumulation (>1,000 tonnes annuall.
Concurrently, the United States faces unprecedented fiscal constraints.
In Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, the cost of servicing the national debt, at an estimated $970 billion, already eclipsed the discretionary outlays for national defense, which stood at $886 billion.
This trend has only worsened in FY2025.
Recent data reveals that net interest costs have surged, with fiscal year-to-date projections exceeding $1 trillion.
In contrast, defense spending is Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025 Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi projected to be around $841.
9 billion.
The Peter G.
Peterson Foundation tracks and analyzes the rising interest costs on the U.
national debt and this data makes the issue starkly clear: for the first time in modern history, the United States is spending more on the interest of its past debt than it is on maintaining its current military and strategic readiness (Chary & Singh, 2.
This critical juncture signifies the crossing of the "Ferguson Limit," a theoretical threshold posited by Ferguson's Law, which asserts that a great power risks decline when its debt servicing costs consistently outstrip its military expenditure (Ferguson N.
, 2.
This fiscal strain is further compounded by the inherent contradictions of the "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the fundamental conflict between a national currency serving as both a domestic currency and a global reserve currency (Arslanalp et al.
, 2.
To provide global dollar liquidity, the US must run trade deficits and accumulate debt, yet this very process can erode confidence in the dollar and lead to financial instability (Ngo et , 2.
Together, these intertwined dynamics, the declining value of the dollar, the ascendance of gold, the crossing of the Ferguson Limit, and the structural pressures of the Triffin Dilemma are fundamentally reshaping the US defense political economy.
This reshaping directly influences resource allocation, constrains defense budgeting, and necessitates significant adjustments to geopolitical strategy.
This article argues that "Gold Rush 2.
0," amplified by the critical implications of FergusonAos Law and the inherent contradictions of the Triffin Dilemma, signals a profound weakening of US economic hegemony, with far-reaching implications for global stability and the nation's capacity for power projection (Goldstein, 1993.
Reilly, 2.
This study seeks to answer the central research question: How do the declining US dollar, rising gold prices.
FergusonAos Law, and the Triffin Dilemma collectively impact the US defense political economy and global geopolitical dynamics? To address this, the study pursues three primary objectives:
A To analyze the interplay of dollar depreciation, gold price surges, escalating debt servicing costs, and global reserve currency dynamics.
A To assess how crossing the Ferguson Limit and the constraints imposed by the Triffin Dilemma affect US defense budgeting and policy.
International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi A To explore the global implications for US geopolitical strategy in a shifting fiscal and monetary landscape.
METHODS
This study employs a comprehensive qualitative methodology to investigate the complex interplay of the declining US dollar, surging gold prices, escalating fiscal constraints, and global monetary dynamics, and their collective impact on the US defense political economy.
By adopting an exclusively qualitative approach, the study prioritizes contextual depth, historical nuance, and interpretive richness to address the central research question: How do the declining US dollar, rising gold prices.
FergusonAos Law, and the Triffin Dilemma collectively impact the US defense political economy and global geopolitical dynamics? This methodological choice is deliberate, enabling a holistic exploration of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and strategic phenomena that are not easily reducible to numerical trends (Creswell, 2.
Qualitative methods, through case studies, policy analysis, and theoretical integration allow the study to capture the intricate causal pathways linking fiscal-monetary pressures to defense outcomes and global stability, while drawing on historical parallels to illuminate contemporary challenges.
The approach is particularly suited to this studyAos objectives: analysing the interplay of dollar depreciation, gold price surges, debt servicing costs, and global reserve dynamics.
assessing the impact of crossing the Ferguson Limit and Triffin-related constraints on US defense budgeting and policy.
and exploring the broader implications for US geopolitical strategy in a shifting fiscal-monetary landscape (Shah et al.
By synthesizing diverse data sources, historical narratives, and policy perspectives within a robust theoretical framework, the study constructs a comprehensive narrative that bridges economics, geopolitics, and security studies (Heo, 2.
The following subsections detail the data collection, analytical methods, and theoretical framework, each designed to ensure rigor and coherence in addressing the research question.
Data Collection The study draws on a rich array of qualitative data from authoritative sources spanning 2000 to 2025, providing a robust empirical foundation for analysing the fiscal, monetary, and strategic dynamics at play.
(Sugiyono, 2.
These sources are selected for Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025 Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi their credibility and relevance to the studyAos focus on the US dollarAos decline, "Gold Rush 0," and the defense political economy.
Key data sources include:
A US Fiscal and Monetary Reports: Documents from the US Treasury.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and Peter G.
Peterson Foundation offer detailed insights into the escalating fiscal pressures facing the United States.
For instance.
Treasury and CBO reports confirm that debt servicing costs reached $970 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, surpassing defense spending at $886 billion, and are projected to exceed $1 trillion in FY2025 against a defense budget of approximately $842Ae852 (Wang, 2.
These figures underscore the crossing of the "Ferguson Limit," where interest payments outstrip military expenditure, signalling a critical juncture in US fiscal-military dynamics (Chahrour & Valchev, 2.
Additionally.
Federal Reserve analyses of the US Dollar Index (DXY) provide context for dollar depreciation, reflecting waning global confidence amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (Mamcarz, 2.
A Monetary and Gold Market Trends: Reports from the World Gold Council and central bank disclosures illuminate the "Gold Rush 2.
0" phenomenon, characterized by unprecedented gold price surges .
veraging $2,600 per ounce in 2025, up 25% year-to-dat.
and significant reserve accumulation .
,200 tonnes in H1 2025, with China and India adding 350 tonnes combine.
(Torres, 2.
These trends signal a global shift toward dedollarization, as emerging markets diversify reserves to hedge against dollar volatility and sanctions risks, such as those imposed on Russia in 2022 (International Monetary Fund.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports further contextualize the dollarAos share of global reserves .
% in 2.
and its gradual decline relative to alternatives like the euro and yuan (International Monetary Fund, 2.
A Policy and Strategic Documents: The study examines key policy artifacts, including the US National Defense Strategy (NDS).
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) reports, and congressional budget debates, to understand how fiscal constraints shape defense priorities.
For example.
FY2025 NDAA debates highlight trade-offs between modernization .
, hypersonic weapons.
AI integratio.
and personnel readiness, driven by debt servicing consuming 18% of federal revenues (U.
Congress.
House Committee on Armed Services, 2025.
Department of Defense, 2.
Reports from credit-rating agencies .
MoodyAos.
S&P) provide insights into perceptions of US fiscal sustainability, while central bank statements .
BRICS nation.
reveal strategic responses to monetary shifts (Zeng & Dyr, 2.
International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi A Historical Records: Archival data on past fiscal-military crises, sourced from academic histories and economic analyses, offer comparative context for understanding great-power These include records from 18th-century France, post-WWI Britain, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the post-COVID-19 recovery period, each marked by fiscal strain and monetary realignments analogous to the current US context (Gentilucci, 2.
This diverse dataset ensures a comprehensive evidence base, enabling the study to trace the historical and contemporary dimensions of the dollarAos decline, goldAos resurgence, and their strategic implications.
Qualitative Analysis The qualitative analysis is structured around three interconnected methods: case studies, policy analysis, and theoretical integration to provide a nuanced understanding of the research question (Ghozali, 2.
Each method is designed to address specific aspects of the studyAos objectives, ensuring a cohesive and rigorous exploration of the defense political economy.
Case Studies:
To illuminate the long-term consequences of fiscal-monetary pressures on great- power status, the study conducts in-depth case studies of historical and contemporary periods characterized by similar dynamics.
These cases provide critical insights into how economic constraints reshape military capabilities and geopolitical influence, offering parallels to the current US predicament.
The selected cases are:
A 18th-Century France under Louis XIV .
1Ae1.
: This case examines how excessive borrowing to finance wars .
, the War of the Spanish Successio.
led to fiscal collapse, undermining FranceAos military dominance.
The parallels to the US are striking:
debt servicing costs outstripped military spending, forcing strategic retrenchment and contributing to long-term decline.
This case illustrates the risks of crossing the Ferguson Limit, as articulated by Ferguson (Ferguson N.
, 2.
A Post-WWI Britain .
8Ae1.
: BritainAos decline as a global hegemon was marked by rising debt costs surpassing defense, particularly after the 1929 crash.
This fiscal strain limited naval modernization and imperial commitments, weakening BritainAos ability to counter emerging threats .
Nazi German.
This case mirrors the USAos current fiscal challenges and informs the application of FergusonAos Law to modern hegemony (Ferguson , 2.
Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025 Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi A 2008 Global Financial Crisis: The crisis exposed vulnerabilities in the dollar-based financial system, with gold prices surging ($1,800/oz by 2.
as central banks and investors sought safe-haven assets.
The USAos massive stimulus ($2 trillio.
and trade deficits ($500 billion annuall.
amplified Triffin Dilemma pressures, foreshadowing the current "Gold Rush 2.
0" and de-dollarization trends (Gourinchas.
The international monetary and financial system, 2.
A Post-COVID-19 Recovery .
0Ae2.
: Unprecedented stimulus ($6 trillion in 2020Ae 2.
ballooned US debt to $37 trillion .
% of GDP in 2.
, with trade deficits ($1.
trillion in 2.
exacerbating Triffin-related tensions.
Central bank gold purchases .
1,000 tonnes/year since 2.
and gold price spikes reflect eroded confidence in fiat currencies, paralleling the studyAos focus on "Gold Rush 2.
0" (World Gold Council, 2025.
Zadeh J.
, 2.
These case studies are analysed narratively, drawing on historical records, economic analyses, and secondary sources to identify patterns of fiscal-military strain and monetary By comparing these cases to the US context, the study elucidates how current pressures may constrain defense capabilities and reshape global influence.
Policy Analysis:
To understand how policymakers and institutions respond to these fiscal-monetary challenges, the study conducts a thorough review of contemporary policy documents and strategic responses.
This analysis focuses on three key areas:
A US Defense Policy: The study examines the NDS.
DoD budget requests, and FY2024Ae 2025 NDAA debates to assess how rising debt servicing costs ($1 trillion in FY2025, per CBO) constrain defense budgeting.
For instance, interest payments now consume 18% of federal revenues, crowding out 10% of potential defense growth .
, cuts to F-35 upgrades or cyber defense R&D).
Congressional debates reveal tensions between maintaining readiness and investing in modernization, with implications for strategic commitments in regions like the Indo-Pacific (U.
Congress.
House Committee on Armed Services, 2025.
Department of Defense, 2.
A Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Federal Reserve reports.
Treasury statements, and creditrating agency outlooks .
MoodyAos warnings of potential US credit downgrade.
are analysed to evaluate responses to dollar depreciation and debt sustainability concerns.
These documents highlight efforts to balance inflation control .
5Ae3% in 2.
with International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi debt management, amid fears of a "new Triffin" crisis where global dollar demand outpaces fiscal capacity (Moody's Investors Service, 2025.
Gourinchas.
The international monetary and financial system, 2.
A Global Responses: The study reviews central bank policies .
ChinaAos gold reserve strategy, adding 150 tonnes in Q2 2.
and BRICS initiatives .
, gold-backed trade proposal.
to gauge how de-dollarization reshapes global monetary dynamics.
These responses signal a shift toward a multipolar financial order, with implications for US economic influence and geopolitical stability (International Monetary Fund, 2025.
World Gold Council, 2.
This policy analysis synthesizes official statements, budget documents, and international reports to reveal how fiscal and monetary pressures translate into strategic trade-offs, both domestically and globally.
Theoretical Framework:
The study integrates FergusonAos Law and the Triffin Dilemma within two broader political economy frameworks to contextualize the findings:
A Hegemonic Stability Theory: This theory posits that a dominant powerAos economic strength underpins global stability.
The study argues that the erosion of dollar dominance .
, 58% of reserves, down from 71% in 2.
and rising debt servicing costs weaken hegemony, risking a fragmented international order.
FergusonAos Law provides a fiscal lens, highlighting how debt burdens undermine military power, while the Triffin Dilemma explains structural monetary constraints (Ferguson N.
, 2025.
Gourinchas.
The international monetary and financial system, 2019.
International Monetary Fund, 2.
A Resource Dependence Theory: This framework emphasizes how resource constraints shape organizational .
nd nationa.
Rising debt servicing .
2% of GDP in 2.
limits defense resource allocation, forcing trade-offs .
, reduced R&D or troop deployment.
and increasing reliance on allies like NATO or Japan.
This theory frames the strategic adjustments necessitated by fiscal pressures (Congressional Budget Office, 2.
By grounding the analysis in these theories, the study links dollar decline, gold surges, and fiscal constraints to broader shifts in US military power and global influence, providing a cohesive interpretive lens.
Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025 Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi Analytical Approach The qualitative data are synthesized through thematic analysis, identifying recurring patterns and causal relationships across the case studies, policy documents, and theoretical Key themes include fiscal crowding-out .
, interest reducing defense budget.
, monetary realignment .
, gold as a hedge against dollar declin.
, and strategic retrenchment .
, scaled-back global commitment.
Triangulation, cross-referencing historical cases, policy responses, and theoretical insights ensures analytical rigor and validates the findings.
For example, the 18th-century French case illustrates the long-term risks of the Ferguson Limit, while NDAA debates reveal immediate budgetary impacts, and hegemonic stability theory explains global implications for hegemony and stability (Gold & Adams, 1.
This approach constructs a comprehensive narrative that addresses the research objectives while offering actionable insights into the evolving US defense political Rationale for Qualitative Methodology The qualitative methodology is ideally suited to this studyAos interdisciplinary scope, which spans economics, geopolitics, and security studies.
Unlike quantitative approaches that may oversimplify complex dynamics through statistical models, qualitative methods capture the nuanced interplay of historical, policy, and theoretical factors.
Case studies provide depth by revealing parallels between past and present, policy analysis grounds the study in real-world responses, and the theoretical framework offers a lens to interpret broader implications.
This approach ensures robustness and accessibility, aligning with the studyAos goal of illuminating how fiscal-monetary pressures reshape US hegemony and global stability (Atesoglu, 2.
International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi
RESULTS
The qualitative analyses conducted in this study illuminate a critical fiscal-militarymonetary nexus reshaping the US defense political economy and global geopolitical Through thematic analysis of historical case studies, policy documents, and theoretical frameworks, the findings reveal how the declining US dollar, surging gold prices ("Gold Rush 2.
0").
FergusonAos Law, and the Triffin Dilemma collectively erode US economic hegemony, constrain defense capabilities, and signal strategic vulnerabilities.
These results directly address the studyAos objectives: analyzing the interplay of monetaryfiscal dynamics, assessing impacts on defense budgeting, and exploring global strategic By drawing on authoritative data sources, including US Treasury reports.
Congressional Budget Office projections, and World Gold Council analyses, the findings are grounded in credible evidence (U.
Department of the Treasury, 2024.
Congressional Budget Office, 2025.
World Gold Council, 2.
The following themes, synthesized from case studies, policy responses, and theoretical insights, provide a cohesive narrative of the challenges facing US power projection and international stability.
Fiscal and Monetary Pressures: A Shifting Economic Landscape The analysis of fiscal and monetary data highlights escalating pressures undermining the US dollarAos global dominance and straining defense resources.
US national debt has surged from approximately $5.
6 trillion in 2000 to over $37 trillion by 2025, with debt servicing costs rising from $223 billion to $970 billion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 and projected to exceed $1 trillion in FY2025 (U.
Department of the Treasury, 2024.
Congressional Budget Office, 2025.
Peter G.
Peterson Foundation, 2.
This escalation has outpaced defense spending, which stood at $886 billion in FY2024 and is projected at $842Ae852 billion in FY2025, marking a historic crossing of the "Ferguson Limit," where interest payments surpass military expenditure (Ferguson, 2.
The debt-to-GDP ratio, now at 123% in 2025, reflects chronic fiscal strain, exacerbated by persistent trade deficits ($1.
1 trillion in 2.
, which are a structural necessity under the Triffin Dilemma to supply global dollar liquidity (Gourinchas.
The international monetary and financial system, 2.
These deficits, while sustaining the dollarAos reserve role, paradoxically fuel debt accumulation and erode confidence, as evidenced by the US Dollar Index (DXY) declining from 110 in 2000 to 84 in early 2025 (Federal Reserve Board, 2.
Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025 Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi Concurrently, the "Gold Rush 2.
0" phenomenon reflects a global flight to tangible assets amid dollar uncertainty, driven by escalating geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures.
Central banks, in particular, have been prominent buyers, accumulating unprecedented volumes of bullion to diversify their reserves and hedge against currency volatility.
This strategic accumulation reflects a cautious approach to the global financial landscape and a tangible vote of no confidence in traditional reserve assets.
Figure 1.
World Gold Reserves .
Visualization by Nazar.
Data source: Q World Gold Council .
As Figure 1 illustrates, these sustained purchases have resulted in substantial gold reserves held by various nations across continents, with the United States.
Germany, and the IMF holding the largest reported quantities, followed by significant accumulations in countries like China.
Russia, and India.
This distribution underscores the widespread nature of the gold accumulation trend and its geopolitical implications beyond traditional Western International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi Gold prices have risen dramatically from $270 per ounce in 2000 to $2,600 per ounce in 2025, driven by central bank purchases .
,200 tonnes in H1 2025, with China and India adding 350 tonnes combine.
and investor hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, such as sanctions on Russia in 2022 (World Gold Council, 2025.
Zadeh J.
, 2.
This surge aligns with de-dollarization trends, as central banks in over 25 countries diversify reserves, with 12% of emerging market reserves now in gold (International Monetary Fund, 2.
The dollarAos share of global reserves .
% in 2025, down from 71% in 2.
signals a gradual erosion of confidence, amplified by fiscal vulnerabilities and sanctions risks (International Monetary Fund, 2.
Despite inflation stabilizing at 2.
5Ae 3% in 2025, the underlying fiscal-monetary pressures continue to challenge long-term economic stability, setting the stage for defense and strategic trade-offs (Federal Reserve Board, 2.
FergusonAos Law and Triffin Dilemma: Impacts on the Defense Political Economy Thematic analysis reveals that FergusonAos Law and the Triffin Dilemma are pivotal in reshaping US defense priorities, as fiscal constraints increasingly limit military resources.
Historical case studies illustrate the risks of crossing the Ferguson Limit.
In 18th-century France under Louis XIV, excessive borrowing for wars .
War of the Spanish Successio.
led to fiscal collapse, forcing military retrenchment and weakening hegemony, a pattern echoed in post-WWI Britain, where debt costs outstripped naval budgets, contributing to imperial decline (Ferguson N.
, 2.
These parallels resonate with the USAos current predicament, where FY2025 interest payments .
% of federal revenue.
constrain defense budget growth, stagnating at 1Ae2% annually in real terms (Congressional Budget Office, 2.
Policy documents highlight resulting trade-offs:
FY2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) debates reveal reduced funding for modernization programs like hypersonic weapons and AI integration, as resources are diverted to personnel readiness or debt obligations (U.
Congress.
House Committee on Armed Services, 2025.
Department of Defense, 2.
The Triffin Dilemma exacerbates these constraints by necessitating trade deficits that accumulate foreign-held debt ($8.
5 trillion in 2.
, eroding dollar confidence and amplifying fiscal pressures (Gourinchas, he international monetary and financial system, 2.
Policy responses reflect a shift toward cost-effective strategies: the National Defense Strategy (NDS) emphasizes investments in cyber warfare and AI to maintain technological superiority despite budget constraints, while congressional debates highlight cancellations of high-cost Volume 3.
Issue 3, 2025 Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi programs like the E-7 Wedgetail .
ue to cost overruns from $588 million to $724 million per aircraf.
and underfunding of the NavyAos FA-XX fighter program (U.
Department of Defense, 2025.
Congress.
House Committee on Armed Services, 2.
These shifts demonstrate how fiscal strain, driven by FergusonAos Law and Triffin-related debt, forces a reorientation of defense priorities, prioritizing efficiency over expansive commitments, as predicted by resource dependence theory (Congressional Budget Office, 2.
Global Implications: De-Dollarization and Strategic Vulnerabilities The global ramifications of these dynamics are significant, as fiscal-military weaknesses signal opportunities for rivals and accelerate monetary realignments.
Case studies of the 2008 financial crisis and post-COVID-19 recovery provide historical context:
in 2008, gold prices surged ($1,800/oz by 2.
as dollar liquidity strains fueled safe-haven demand, while post-COVID stimulus ($6 trillion in 2020Ae2.
ballooned debt and trade deficits, foreshadowing current de-dollarization trends (World Gold Council, 2025.
Zadeh , 2.
Today, central banksAo gold accumulation .
,000 tonnes/year since 2.
and BRICS initiatives for gold-backed trade reflect strategic moves away from dollar dependence, with a 2025 survey indicating 73% of central banks anticipate a reduced dollar share within five years (International Monetary Fund, 2.
This shift, driven by perceptions of US fiscal vulnerability and sanctions overuse .
RussiaAos $300 billion frozen assets in 2.
, aligns with hegemonic stability theory, suggesting a fragmented global order as US economic dominance wanes (Ferguson N.
, 2025.
International Monetary Fund, 2.
Geopolitically, policy analysis indicates that US defense planners are countering these vulnerabilities through alliances and technology.
The AUKUS pact and strengthened NATO commitments aim to offset reduced US power projection, while investments in cyber and AI capabilities seek to maintain strategic superiority despite fiscal constraints (U.
Department of Defense, 2.
However, case studies suggest rivals perceive opportunities: ChinaAos gold reserve strategy and RussiaAos pivot to yuan-based trade exploit US fiscal weaknesses, potentially emboldening challenges in regions like the IndoPacific (International Monetary Fund, 2.
These findings align with resource dependence theory, as fiscal limitations force reliance on allies and technology, reshaping global strategy and risking instability in a multipolar financial landscape (Congressional Budget Office, 2.
International Journal of Humanities.
Education, and Social Sciences Yohana Meyrida Simamora.
Anak Agung Banyu Perwita.
Oktaheroe Ramsi Synthesis and Theoretical Insights Thematic synthesis across case studies, policy documents, and theoretical frameworks reveals a consistent pattern: the interplay of dollar decline, gold surges, and fiscal constraints undermines US economic and military hegemony.
FergusonAos Law frames the fiscal-military tipping point, with debt servicing crowding out defense resources, while the Triffin Dilemma highlights structural monetary vulnerabilities driving de-dollarization (Ferguson N.
, 2025.
Gourinchas.
The international monetary and financial system, 2.
Hegemonic stability theory contextualizes the global risks, as a weakened US dollar threatens international economic order, while resource dependence theory explains strategic adjustments, such as reliance on alliances and cost-effective technologies (International Monetary Fund, 2025.
Congressional Budget Office, 2.
These findings underscore the profound implications of "Gold Rush 2.
0" and fiscal pressures, not only for US defense capabilities but also for global stability, as rivals exploit vulnerabilities and alternative monetary systems emerge (Banerjee et al.
, 2.
DISCUSSION