EKOBISTEK JOURNAL
LPPM Universitas Putra Indonesia YPTK Padang Lubuk Begalung Road.
Padang.
Sumatera Barat.
Indonesia.
Pos Code: 25221 Volume: 14.
Issue: 4.
Page: 176-182, 31/12/2025, e-ISSN: 2527-9483 Economic Determinants Of Criminality in IndonesiaAos Capital City Fitri Ramadhani1nC.
Ismadiyanti Purwaning Astuti2 Department of Economics.
Faculty of Social Economics.
Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta.
Yogyakarta, 55281.
Indonesia fitriramadhani@students.
Abstract Crime is a social issue that often impacts the well-being of the community.
In Jakarta alone, approximately 214 crimes per 100,000 residents were recorded in 2023.
This study aims to analyze the impact of economic factors on the crime rate in Jakarta Province during the 2017Ae2024 period.
The independent variables include decent housing, poverty, and education, while the dependent variable is the crime rate.
A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, analyzed through panel data regression with the Common Effect Model.
The findings reveal that decent housing, poverty, education and public spending significantly affect crime rates.
Simultaneously, all four independent variables significantly affect crime rates, with the coefficient of determination reaching 86,81%.
These results highlight that crime prevention policies in urban areas should primarily focus on improving education quality, while also addressing housing conditions and poverty alleviation as supporting measures.
Keywords: decent housing, poverty, education, crime.
Jakarta.
Jurnal Ekobistek is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.
0 International License.
Introduction with 31,523 cases recorded throughout the year .
This rise in crime cases illustrates that criminality is not a trivial matter and has become a real threat to social stability and public security, especially in urban areas.
Crime has become one of the social problems in a region that is complex in nature and has a significant impact on security stability, the economy, and the overall welfare There are many factors that contribute to crime in a of society .
Criminal acts remain an issue that, to this region, including rapid urbanization, economic day, are an important responsibility for a country to inequality within society, population density, and the address immediately.
In Indonesia, the number of lack of effective police presence, all of which can criminal cases in 2023, according to data from the increase crime rates .
, .
In addition, the average Central Bureau of Statistics, reached 584,991 with a wages of laborers, the minimum district/city wage crime risk level of 214 per 100,000 population.
These (UMK), and government spending also have a figures include cases of theft, domestic violence, and significant influence on crime levels .
Limited access murder .
This number is considered relatively high to education is another factor that contributes to the rise and places Indonesia at the 20th position among of criminal activity, particularly in urban areas .
countries with the highest number of crimes in the Crime is also closely related to economic conditions.
world, based on a crime index score of 6.
Meanwhile.
Economic disparities and high unemployment rates the highest crime index in the world is recorded in often trigger an increase in criminal activity in certain Myanmar at 8.
Based on these data, it is evident When individuals struggle to meet basic needs that crime cases in Indonesia cannot be ignored .
or feel they lack opportunities to improve their living DKI Jakarta, as a major metropolitan area, is certainly standards, they may become driven to commit criminal not exempt from the threat of crime.
The annual acts .
population growth and rapid urbanization have Rapid urbanization also leads to high population contributed to the increasing potential for criminal acts growth, which is often not balanced by sufficient job .
Additionally, high population mobility and rising As a result, social inequality emerges, economic inequality are often driving factors behind increasing the likelihood that individuals facing According to data from the Central Bureau of economic hardship may engage in criminal behavior.
Statistics in 2023, the number of criminal cases The most common types of crime in urban communities increased by 69.
63% compared to the previous year.
Submission: 02-12-2025 | Accepted: 19-12-2025 | Publication: 31-12-2025 | doi: 10.
35134/ekobistek.
Fitri Ramadhani.
Ismadiyanti Purwaning Astuti include theft, fraud, and assault.
These crimes often do not involve physical attacks but instead involve taking money or valuable items belonging to others .
Previous studies also support the factors that influence crime, namely unemployment, economic inequality, and poverty, all of which have a significant impact on crime rates in metropolitan cities .
Unemployment itself affects the level of poverty in a region.
When unemployment increases, it can raise the poverty rate.
In addition, education level indirectly influences poverty rates.
Unfortunately, previous studies were still limited to the aspects of unemployment, poverty, and education level as potential factors affecting crime rates, so it is necessary to consider other factors that may also influence crime levels in metropolitan areas .
that combines time series and cross-section data.
The empirical testing was conducted using the EViews 13 application, beginning with the selection of the appropriate regression model based on the results of the Chow test.
Hausman test, and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test.
The research variables consist of independent variables, namely adequate housing (X.
, poverty (X.
, education level (X.
, and household expenditure (X.
, while the dependent variable is crime (Y).
The data collection method used documentation by obtaining data for each variable from 2017 to 2024 in the DKI Jakarta region, divided by the administrative cities within the province, namely Kepulauan Seribu.
South Jakarta.
East Jakarta.
Central Jakarta.
West Jakarta, and North Jakarta.
Table 1.
Indicators of Data Used in the Study Urban crime is also closely related to housing conditions, where inadequate housing access can trigger Variable Indicator criminal activity.
This includes strategic location and Adequate Housing Level of accessibility to adequate security in the surrounding residential area .
(HLK)
housing in the DKI Jakarta region Poverty (KMS) Poverty rate in the DKI Jakarta region Meanwhile, poverty and increasing household Education Level (TPK) Average years of schooling of the expenditure can potentially lead to a rise in criminal population in the DKI Jakarta region Economic factors and inequality remain the main Household Expenditure Average monthly expenditure per causes of crime in urban areas .
Moreover, unequal (PLM) capita in the DKI Jakarta region access to education may lead individuals to commit crimes because limited knowledge may prevent them from considering the consequences of engaging in Selection of Panel Data Regression Model criminal behavior.
Before conducting the regression analysis, a model Increasing household expenditure can certainly selection process was carried out to determine the most contribute to the rise of poverty levels in Indonesia.
appropriate panel data model.
The models compared When expenses are not balanced with equivalent were the Common Effect Model (CEM).
Fixed Effect income, unemployment rates will continue to increase.
Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM).
Communities with better economic conditions generally These three models were evaluated using the Chow have access to adequate housing and more balanced Test.
Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test to Conversely, when most people experience identify the most suitable model for the study.
The poor economic conditions, unemployment may selected model is the one whose probability value meets the criteria of each test (< 0.
05 or > 0.
05 according to continue to rise .
the respective rule.
, ensuring that the model used in the Therefore, in this study, the researcher includes subsequent analysis fully adheres to the principles of additional factors that may potentially influence crime panel data regression model selection.
rates in the capital city.
The researcher also conducts a more specific analysis by considering the time span and 3.
Results and Discussions geographical scope of the research.
Data were collected Result from 2017 to 2024, adjusted to the respective cities within the DKI Jakarta region.
Hence, the research Model Estimation question formulated in this study is: what economic The following are the estimation results of the three factors influence crime rates in DKI Jakarta during the panel data regression models, namely the Common period 2017Ae2024.
Meanwhile, the purpose of this Effect Model (CEM).
Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and study is to identify the economic factors that affect Random Effect Model (REM).
crime rates in DKI Jakarta.
Table 2.
Model Estimation Methods This study employs a quantitative research approach using numerical data and statistical analysis for hypothesis testing and examining the relationships among the variables in the study.
The quantitative method in this research utilizes a panel data regression model, which is an econometric and statistical technique Variable HLK
KMS
TPK
Comon Effect Model Fixed Effect Model Random Effect Model (Std.
(Std.
(Std.
- 6.
(-5.
(-0.
(-4.
(-2.
(-2.
Jurnal Ekobistek Oe Vol.
14 Iss.
Fitri Ramadhani.
Ismadiyanti Purwaning Astuti .
(-0.
F-statistic (F-statisti.
R-Squared Adj.
R-Squared PLM Source: Processed Data from Eviews 13 .
The results in Table 2 show that the estimated effects of adequate housing, poverty, education level, and household expenditure are significant in both the common effect model and the random effect model, as indicated by probability values < 0.
Model Selection Test The model selection test was conducted after estimating the three models to determine the most appropriate model to be used in this study.
Table 3.
Model Selection Test
Model Test
Statistic Chow Test
1,335422
Prob > 0,2703 Hausman Test
5,249857
0,2626
Selected Model Lagrange 1,423158 0,2329 Multiplier Test Source: Processed Data from Eviews 13 .
Common Effect Model (CEM) Random Effect Model (REM) Common Effect Model (CEM) Based on the sequence of tests, the Chow Test shows a probability value greater than 0.
05, namely 0.
indicating that the appropriate model is the Common Effect Model (CEM).
The Lagrange Multiplier Test also shows a probability value greater than 0.
05, namely 2329, so the selected model is the Common Effect Model (CEM).
Meanwhile, the Hausman Test shows a probability value greater than 0.
05, namely 0.
indicating that the selected model is the Random Effect Model (REM).
From the three tests, this study adopts the Common Effect Model (CEM).
The Common Effect Model uses the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach and is one of the widely used methods for estimating parameter values in linear regression equations.
When the selected model is CEM, it is necessary to conduct classical assumption tests, including multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity tests .
Panel Data Regression Test The following are the results of the panel data regression test conducted by the researcher using the Common Effect Model:
Table 4.
Panel Data Regression Test Results Variable Coefficient Std.
Error
HLK
AKMS
tStatistic Prob.
TPK
PLM
R-squared Adjusted R-Square Sum Squared Mean dependent var dependent var.
Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-Statisti.
Source: Processed Data from Eviews 13 .
Based on Table 4, the results show the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable.
The constant value of Ae31.
42 indicates that when the variables of adequate housing, poverty, and education level are assumed to be zero, the crime rate tends to have a negative value.
The coefficient of adequate housing is Ae0.
588, meaning that every one-unit increase in adequate housing will reduce the crime rate by 0.
Academically, this indicates that the better the publicAos access to adequate housing, the lower the tendency for crime to occur.
The poverty coefficient of Ae0.
695 shows that a one-unit increase in poverty is followed by a decrease in crime The education level coefficient of 7.
indicates that each one-unit increase in education level is followed by an increase in crime by 7.
989, assuming other variables remain constant.
The household expenditure coefficient of 1.
238 shows that every oneunit increase in household expenditure leads to an increase in crime by 1.
238, assuming other variables remain constant.
Increasing household expenditure that is not accompanied by sufficient income can create a greater potential for crime.
The coefficient of determination test is a measurement that shows how much of the variation in the dependent variable can be explained by the independent variables in the regression model, expressed as a percentage as an indicator of model fit.
The calculation results show that the R-squared value is 0.
868149 or approximately This means that about 86.
81% of the variation in the dependent variable can be explained by the independent variables in the regression model, while the 19% is explained by other factors outside the model.
Classical Assumption Test When using the Common Effect Model (CEM), classical assumption tests are required to ensure that the data used is valid and suitable for research before conducting regression analysis.
In this study, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity tests were carried out.
The multicollinearity test shows that there is no multicollinearity in the data.
This is indicated by the correlation values: HLK and KMS at 0.
2407 < 0.
KMS and TPK at 0.
77324 < 0.
TPK and PLM at 787228 < 0.
85, and HLK and PLM at 0.
Jurnal Ekobistek Oe Vol.
14 Iss.
Fitri Ramadhani.
Ismadiyanti Purwaning Astuti Meanwhile, the heteroscedasticity test, based on the probability values of the variables decent housing (HLK), poverty (KMS), education level (TPK), and community expenditure (PLM), shows that all variables have values greater than 5%, indicating that the data is free from heteroscedasticity.
Discussion The Effect of Adequate Housing on Crime in DKI Jakarta This condition may also weaken social control, as impoverished communities tend to focus on fulfilling daily necessities .
Nevertheless, poverty in urban areas may not fully demonstrate a direct linkage with crime.
Individuals living under severe poverty do not necessarily have the intention to commit criminal acts, as they may still consider the consequences of engaging in unlawful Therefore, this variable does not show a positive correlation with crime potential in a given The results of the study show that the coefficient of the adequate housing variable is -0.
588142, which means The Effect of Education on Crime in DKI Jakarta that every increase in the quality of adequate housing has the potential to reduce crime rates in DKI Jakarta.
The results of the study indicate that the level of However, the t-statistic value of -2.
889325 with a education has a significant influence on crime in DKI probability of 0.
0060 is smaller than the t-table value of Jakarta.
The regression coefficient of 7.
989 suggests 015 .
n absolute term.
This indicates that the that each one-unit increase in education is instead influence of adequate housing on crime is statistically followed by an increase in crime rates.
Furthermore, the significant, even though the direction of the relationship t-statistic value of 4.
046668 with a probability of 0.
is negative.
A negative relationship suggests that the far below the 0.
05 significance level and exceeding the more adequate the housing owned by the community, t-table value of 2.
015 confirms that the education the lower the crime rate in the area.
variable has a significant effect on crime.
Thus, there is a meaningful relationship between education and crime.
The adequate housing variable measures the level of although the direction of the relationship does not housing feasibility in terms of environmental always align with common assumptions conditions, strategic location, and the health and comfort of the dwelling.
A higher level of housing The results of this study support previous research, adequacy is assessed to lower crime rates.
The negative which explained that education serves as an important relationship indicates that the more adequate the instrument in shaping individual behavior, morality, and housing, the lower the crime that occurs in the region.
Access to quality education enables The findings of this study support previous research individuals which stated that adequate housing plays an important opportunities, enhances legal awareness, and role in shaping a safe and orderly social environment strengthens self-control.
Conversely, low levels of .
Proper, healthy, and well-organized housing education are often associated with limited job skills, conditions can reduce psychological stress, increase the poor understanding of social norms, and weak criticalsense of security, and strengthen positive social thinking abilities, all of which can increase the risk of interactions within the community.
Conversely, engaging in criminal acts.
slum-like A high level of education does not necessarily guarantee environments that are prone to conflict, lack social that a person will refrain from committing crimes.
supervision, and are vulnerable to criminal activity.
Individuals with higher education levels may even use Thus, the availability of adequate housing can reduce their intelligence to carry out more structured forms of crime potential by creating a more stable and conducive criminal behavior.
However, criminal activity is not social environment.
solely determined by educational attainment.
it is more The Effect of Poverty on Crime in DKI Jakarta complex and influenced by various other factors, such as social, economic, and cultural environments, which The results of the study show that the poverty may lead even highly educated individuals to commit coefficient is -0.
695427, which means that an increase criminal acts .
of one unit in poverty is instead followed by a decrease in crime.
However, the t-statistic value of -2.
091980 The Effect of Community Expenditure on Crime in with a probability of 0.
0424 is smaller than the t-table DKI Jakarta value of 2.
015, indicating that the effect of poverty on The results of the study show that community crime is negative and statistically significant.
expenditure has a significant influence on crime in DKI These findings contradict previous research, which Jakarta.
The regression coefficient of 1.
238 indicates concluded that poverty is often viewed as one of the that each one-unit increase in community expenditure is main factors driving criminal behavior .
Limited followed by an increase in crime rates.
Furthermore, the access to decent employment, low income, and the t-statistic value of 2.
565182 with a probability of 0.
inability to meet basic needs can create social frustration well below the 0.
05 significance level and exceeding the and push individuals to seek shortcuts through criminal t-table value of 2.
015 confirms that the community Jurnal Ekobistek Oe Vol.
14 Iss.
Fitri Ramadhani.
Ismadiyanti Purwaning Astuti expenditure variable has a significant effect on crime.
Thus, there is a clear relationship between community expenditure and criminal activity.
Increasing community expenditure over the years without being accompanied by rising income levels can lead to the emergence of various criminal acts.
This occurs because individuals tend to seek various ways to meet their needs.
This condition is known as social When someone experiences severe economic pressure, it creates significant psychological stress.
Individuals may feel anxious and desperate as their expenses continue to rise, thereby increasing the likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior .
However, other studies explain the opposite: increasing community expenditure actually indicates that the welfare of the community is improving.
This is certainly in contrast to the findings of the present study, in which rising community expenditure should instead be followed by a decrease in the number of criminal cases .
The Influence of Decent Housing.
Poverty.
Education, and Community Expenditure on Crime in DKI Jakarta Based on the calculation results, the F-statistic value obtained is 70.
78153 with a probability value of Since the probability value is smaller than the significance level of 0.
05, it can be concluded that the regression model constructed is statistically significant.
This indicates that all independent variables in the model collectively contribute to explaining the variation occurring in the dependent variable.
The condition of the residential environment plays a major role in shaping individual behavior.
Inadequate housing is often associated with population density, poor sanitation, and limited access to public facilities.
These conditions can create discomfort and increase the potential for social conflict.
When the physical environment does not support well-being, individuals become more vulnerable to engaging in criminal acts, either as perpetrators or victims.
Therefore, decent housing becomes an important factor in efforts to prevent crime .
Poverty is not merely an issue of low income, but also limited access to productive resources such as education and employment.
In conditions of poverty, individuals have fewer options to meet their basic needs.
This situation increases the likelihood that some members of society may take shortcuts through criminal behavior.
Therefore, crime prevention efforts in urban areas cannot be separated from efforts to reduce poverty and improve overall social welfare .
Meanwhile, the role of education remains important even though the research findings show a complex Education serves as a means to enhance the social and economic capacities of the community.
However, if the quality of education is not accompanied by equal employment opportunities, it may actually worsen social inequality.
This can widen the gap between those who succeed and those who do not, which then creates social pressure and has the potential to increase crime.
Uncontrolled household spending can lead to potential criminal behavior because individuals face social pressures that force them to meet their needs.
This makes it possible for someone to resort to various means to fulfill those needs, including engaging in criminal Therefore, education, decent housing, household expenditure, and poverty alleviation must be viewed as a unified set of complementary policies in addressing crime issues in DKI Jakarta .
The results of this study also support previous research, which explained that decent housing, poverty, household expenditure, and education are closely related in influencing the level of crime in society .
Adequate housing can create a safe social environment, while poverty alleviation can reduce the economic pressures that drive criminal acts.
On the other hand, education strengthens moral values and opens access to better life opportunities.
These three factors complement one another: decent housing supports the growth of healthy communities, poverty reduction suppresses need-based criminal behavior, and education provides a long-term foundation for building a safer and more empowered society.
In addition, reasonable household expenditure that is balanced with income has the potential to reduce criminal acts.
Conclusions Based on the results of the research conducted, it can be concluded that decent housing and poverty have a negative and significant effect on crime in DKI Jakarta.
A negative and significant effect indicates that an increase in these variables will actually reduce the level of crime.
Meanwhile, education and household expenditure have a positive and significant effect on crime in DKI Jakarta.
The higher the values of the education variable and household expenditure, the greater the potential for an increase in crime rates.
Crime can occur due to several supporting factors, such as inadequate access to decent housing, which can increase the potential for criminal acts.
Meanwhile, high poverty is not entirely the cause of crime because additional factors, such as environmental, economic, and cultural conditions, also drive such behavior.
A high level of education may still lead to crime if not balanced with sufficient employment opportunities.
In addition, increasing household expenditure can create social pressure that contributes to an individualAos tendency to engage in criminal acts.
Based on the research findings, it is recommended that the government and stakeholders in DKI Jakarta focus their policies more on improving the quality and accessibility of education, given that this factor has been Jurnal Ekobistek Oe Vol.
14 Iss.
Fitri Ramadhani.
Ismadiyanti Purwaning Astuti proven to significantly influence crime rates.
Higher levels of education need to be balanced with sufficient employment opportunities.
therefore, the government is responsible for ensuring adequate expansion of job opportunities for the community.
In addition, programs aimed at improving decent housing and reducing poverty must continue to be implemented sustainably as supporting efforts that can strengthen the positive effects in reducing crime when combined with improvements in education.
Acknowledgments The author would like to express sincere gratitude to the lecturers and academic staff of Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta for their guidance, direction, and support throughout the research process.
The author also extends appreciation to all parties who assisted in providing the necessary data.
All individuals mentioned have given their consent.
References