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eISSN: 2615-3491
ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF CRIME IN JAMBI PROVINCE
Ahmad Soleh Faculty of Economics and Business.
University of Muhammadiyah Jambi soleh@umjambi.
Yunie Rahayu Faculty of Economics and Business.
University of Muhammadiyah Jambi rahayu@umjambi.
Sedat Balikaya Istanbul University.
Turkey balikaya@istanbul.
Abdul Wahid Faculty of Economics and Business.
University of Muhammadiyah Jambi abdulwahid@gmail.
Prima Audia Daniel primaaudia1@gmail.
University of Muhammadiyah Jambi Aguston Kurniawan k@gmail.
University of Muhammadiyah Jambi
ABSTRAK
A person's limitations to meet daily needs caused by the lack of resources they have make some people commit unlawful acts because the purpose of this research is to find out and analyze the relationship and influence of Economic Growth.
Unemployment, and Education on Criminals in Jambi Province in the 2013-2022 period.
This study uses the Quantitative Correlation and Descriptive Analysis method.
The Correlation Analysis Method was used to measure how much the relationship between each variable, namely Economic Care.
Unemployment.
Education and Criminalization in Jambi Province for the period 2013-2022.
And the quantitative descriptive analysis method was used to measure how much influence the variables of economic growth, unemployment, education and crime in Jambi Province in the 2013-2022 period.
The results of the study show that the Correlation Test of Economic Growth (X.
with Crime (Y) is 0.
778 where the correlation number This means that Economic Growth has a relationship with Crime in the Strong closeness category.
Unemployment (X.
with Crime (Y) is 0.
799 where r = 79.
9 % correlation figure This means a category of strong closeness.
education (X.
with Crime (Y) of 0.
where r = 69.
2 % correlation rate This means that education has a relationship with crime in Jambi Province of the strong closeness category From the research conducted using a quantitative test which shows the results of regression analysis that the economic growth variable (X.
has a coefficient of -0.
021 with a significance value of 0.
026, which means that there is a negative and significant relationship between economic growth and the level of Crime.
Keywords: Economic Growth.
Unemployment.
Education.
Crime.
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INTRODUCTION
Indonesia is an archipelagic country that is very rich socioculturally.
The diversity of cultures, ethnicities, religions, races, and social groups that belong to them is an important asset in national development.
This diversity, if managed in an inclusive and equitable manner, can be a great social force in strengthening social cohesion and supporting community welfare.
In this context, cultural practices and social norms not only reflect collective identities, but also play an important role in regulating social interactions and distributing resources in a socio-economic Culture as a value system and social practice also shapes the way society interprets welfare and responds to social inequality (Geertz, 1973.
Hofstede, 2.
However, the dynamics of socio-economic life in Indonesia show serious challenges in realizing equitable welfare.
Public discourse often highlights the low level of public welfare in various regions, which in many cases goes hand in hand with an increase in crime rates.
This phenomenon becomes increasingly complex in the contemporary era, where society is faced with social transformation due to rapid technological and economic developments.
Technological advances that on the one hand increase the efficiency of life, on the other hand cause a lot of social and psychological pressure.
Societies are required to be able to adapt quickly to these changes, while not all individuals have the same capacity and opportunity to do so.
According to Maulana .
, the mismatch between materialistic aspirations instilled by modern consumptive culture and limited economic capabilities can give birth to social frustration.
This frustration, if not addressed through healthy social channels, can encourage individuals to commit criminal acts as a shortcut to fulfill needs or desires.
In the perspective of strain theory developed by Merton .
, this condition shows an imbalance between cultural goals and legitimate means to achieve them.
Crime itself is a multidimensional social problem.
In addition to harming victims directly in the form of material, physical, and emotional losses, crime also burdens society collectively.
The economic burden due to crime includes the costs of law enforcement, the judicial system, security, and decreased labor productivity (Pasiza et al.
, 2.
Therefore, the success of a country's development is not only UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH JAMBI
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Crime data in Jambi Province during the period 2013 to 2022 shows significant fluctuations.
Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS, 2.
, crime cases reached their peak in 2015 with a total of 8,892 cases.
After declining in the following years, the crime rate increased again in 2022 to 3,614 These fluctuations reflect the instability of socio-economic conditions in the area and require serious attention from various stakeholders.
As a concrete illustration, the case of motorcycle theft involving students in Tanjung Jabung Barat Regency in April 2024 as reported by Metro Jambi (Siswono, 2.
, reflects the link between consumptive desires, lack of financial literacy, and weak social control.
Criminal acts like this show that age, social environment, and economic pressures play a role in increasing the risk of adolescent involvement in criminal acts.
The phenomenon of crime cannot be separated from the condition of public welfare in general.
Luthfi .
emphasized that a sense of security is the main indicator in assessing community welfare.
Security is a prerequisite for people to live productively, interact healthily, and participate in development.
Therefore, the high crime rate can be a reflection of the low quality of life of a community.
One of the roots of low public welfare is poverty.
Poverty not only describes material deprivation, but also reflects limited access to education, health services, decent work, and participation in social life.
In some cases, this inequality encourages individuals to take shortcuts through criminal acts in order to survive (Febrianti, 2.
Welfare indicators according to BPS .
include per capita income, household consumption, housing conditions, access to education and health services, and the availability of transportation infrastructure.
Low welfare often goes hand in hand with income inequality, which in turn widens social gaps and triggers horizontal and vertical conflicts.
Regarding economic growth in Jambi Province.
BPS data shows that there are significant dynamics.
The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP) increased from Rp111.
77 trillion in 2013 to Rp161.
73 trillion in 2022, with an average annual
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However, in 2020 there was an economic contraction of 0.
51% due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly reduced household economic capacity and increased the unemployment rate.
The high unemployment rate is an important variable in the analysis of crime.
Based on BPS data .
, the number of unemployed in Jambi Province reached the highest figure in 2020 of 93,990 people, and although it decreased to 86,459 people in 2022, this figure still shows a structural burden on the regional economy.
High unemployment not only lowers household income, but also increases the potential for social tension and criminality as a form of deviation from the established social system (Wicaksono, 2.
On the other hand, educational factors play a central role in shaping individual behavior and people's economic opportunities.
BPS data shows that the average length of school in Jambi Province increased from 7.
80 years in 2013 to 8.
years in 2022.
While this increase is commendable, the figure is still below the minimum standard for completing high school.
Low education limits people's access to formal employment, increases vulnerability to social exclusion, and reduces the ability of individuals to make rational decisions based on legal norms (Wicaksono.
In this framework, the interaction between social variables such as education, unemployment, poverty, and economic growth with crime becomes very relevant to be examined in depth.
Previous studies have shown that the relationship between crime rates and socio-economic variables is complex and contextual, depending on the demographic, structural, and cultural conditions of an area (Becker, 1968.
Ehrlich, 1.
Therefore, data-based empirical analysis specific to the Jambi Province region is important in formulating targeted and evidence-based crime prevention strategies.
Taking into account this complexity, this study was conducted to analyze the determinants of crime in Jambi Province.
The main objective of this study is to identify the socio-economic determinants that contribute to the increase in crime, as well as to evaluate the extent to which economic and social dynamics in the last decade have influenced crime patterns in the region.
The results of the research are expected to make a theoretical and practical contribution, especially in the UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH JAMBI
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Based on this background, this study will identify socio-economic determinants that contribute to the increase in crime, as well as evaluate the extent to which economic and social dynamics in the last decade have affected crime patterns in this region.
The results of the research are expected to make a theoretical and practical contribution, especially in the formulation of regional development policies that are inclusive, responsive to inequality, and oriented towards social
THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
This research draws on several key theoretical approaches that explain the root causes of crime from a multidisciplinary perspective.
First, the theory of the social environment states that criminal behavior does not solely originate from the individual, but is greatly influenced by the conditions of the surrounding environment, both the family environment and the community at large.
Social, economic, and cultural factors in the environment have a significant contribution to shaping a person's tendency to commit crimes.
Second, socialist theory emphasizes that crime arises as a consequence of inequality and economic pressure in society.
Social injustice, resource distribution gaps, and unequal life opportunities, encourage marginalized individuals to choose criminal paths as a form of resistance to unjust social structures.
In this theoretical framework, criminality is understood not simply as a violation of the law, but as a product of a complex interaction between internal and external factors.
Internal factors include psychological conditions, personality traits, intelligence levels, as well as biological factors such as genetic predisposition.
Meanwhile, external factors include economic pressure, weak social control, low education, dysfunctional religious values, and the influence of media and reading that stimulate deviant behavior.
In line with that, modern criminological theories such as sociogenic theory, subcultural delicacy, and criminal economic theory state
that crime is the result of systemic dysfunction in society, where poverty, unemployment, urbanization, and unequal social structures become fertile ground
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Therefore, understanding criminality requires an integrative approach, encompassing biological, psychological, and social dimensions that interact with each other in specific structural contexts.
METHODOLOGY
This study uses qualitative and quantitative descriptive analysis methods with an exploratory approach.
The type of data used in this study is secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Bandan (BPS) of Jambi Province and the publication of Indonesian crime statistics during the 2013-2022 period.
In data collection, documentation techniques were used, literature studies and literature studies of previous research.
The analysis tool used in the study is person correlation which is an analysis to see the relationship between variables in the research.
With the following Correlation of Economic Growth and Crime Oc(YX.
Oe (Oc X.
(Oc Y) ycycycu = Oo.
Oc X12 Oe ( Oc X1 ).
cA Oc ycU2 Oe (Oc ycU).
ycycycu Oc X1 OcY Oc X12 Oc ycU2 Oc XY = Correlation Figures Between Economic Growth and Crime = Number of samples = Total Economic Growth = The Number of Crimes = Sum squared Economic Growth = Number of Crime Squares = The sum of the multiplication between Economic Growth and Crime The Correlation of Unemployment and Crime Oc(YX.
Oe (Oc X.
(Oc Y) ycycycu = Oo.
Oc X22 Oe ( Oc X2 ).
cA Oc ycU2 Oe (Oc ycU).
Oc X2
OcY Oc X22
Oc ycU2
Oc XY
= The Correlation Between Unemployment and Crime
= Number of samples = Total Unemployment = The Number of Crimes = Total square Unemployment = Number of Crime Squares = Number of Results of Multiplication between Unemployment and Crime
The Correlation of Education and Crime
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ycycycu = pISSN: 2338-6746 eISSN: 2615-3491 Oc(YX.
Oe (Oc X.
(Oc Y) Oo.
Oc X32 Oe ( Oc X3 ).
cA Oc ycU2 Oe (Oc ycU).
ycycycu = The correlation between education and crime = Number of samples Oc X3 = Number of Education OcY = The Number of Crimes Oc X32 = Number of education squares Oc ycU2 = Number of Crime Squares Oc XY = Number of results of multiplication between Education and Crime Furthermore, to analyze the influence of economic growth, unemployment and education variables on crime, multiple regression analysis tools were used with the following formulation model:
ycU = yu0 yu1.
ycU1 yu2.
ycU2 yu3.
ycU3 yce Information :
= Crime yu0 = Konstanta ycU1 = Economic Growth ycU2 = Unemployment ycU3 = Education In analyzing with multiple regression, it is followed by conducting a t-test, an F test and an R2 test.
RESULT
The relationship between economic growth, unemployment and education to crime.
Based on the results of the correlation analysis, the following results were Table 1.
Correlation Processing Results Correlations Crime Crime Economic Growth Unemploy Education Pearson Correlation Sig.
-taile.
Pearson Correlation Sig.
-taile.
Pearson Correlation Sig.
-taile.
Pearson Correlation UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH JAMBI
Economic Growth
Unemplo
Education Page 140 of 202
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-taile.
**.
Correlation is significant at the 0.
01 level .
-taile.
Correlation is significant at the 0.
05 level .
-taile.
From the results of the analysis in figure 1, it can be seen that there is a strong correlation between Economic Growth (X.
, between Unemployment (X.
and Education (X.
and Crime with a value of 0.
778, for economic growth, 0.
799 for unemployment and 0.
692 for education, respectively.
This condition shows that when there is a decline in economic growth, an increase in unemployment and a decrease in education levels will encourage an increase in crime.
The effect of economic growth, unemployment and education on crime.
From the results of the data analysis, the results of the study were obtained that the level of education had a negative and significant effect while the variables of economic growth and unemployment had a negative but not significant effect.
Table 2.
Regression Processing Results Coefficientsa Unstandardized Coefficients Model (Constan.
Std.
Error Standardize Coefficients Beta Economic Growth -.
Unemployment Education Sig.
Dependent Variable: Kriminalitas Thus, it can be formulated into:
Y=11.
284 Ae 0.
021X1 Ae 0.
971X2 Ae 0.
327X3 e The results can be interpreted as follows:
The value of the 0 coefficient (Constan.
of 11,284 means, if the variables of Economic Growth (X.
Unemployment (X.
, and Education (X.
in Jambi
Province do not change or with constant assumptions, then Crime (Y) in UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH JAMBI
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284 percent.
The regression coefficient of the Economic Growth variable (X.
was obtained with a value of -0.
021, meaning that every time there is an increase in the X1 variable (Economic Growt.
by 1%, it will reduce Jambi Province Crime by -0.
974 percent.
This condition occurs as a result of the economic decline of the community at large which has an impact on declining welfare.
So that to meet the needs of life as a result of economic difficulties will trigger people to commit criminal acts.
The regression coefficient of the Unemployment variable (X.
was obtained with a value of -0.
971, meaning that every time there is an increase in the X2 variable (Unemploymen.
by 1%, it will reduce Jambi Province's Crime by 971 percent.
This condition occurs because high unemployment will increase poverty and decrease welfare and meet needs so that unemployed people will tend to commit criminal acts.
The regression coefficient of the Education variable (X.
was obtained with a value of -0.
327, meaning that every time there is an increase in the X3 variable (Educatio.
by 1%, it will reduce Jambi Province's Crime by 0.
This condition occurs due to the low ability to think, analyze and distinguish good and correct behavior as a result of the low level of education from the community.
So that it is difficult for people to understand the correct norms and rules and tend to commit crimes.
The R-squared value (R.
This means that around 96.
7% of the increase or decrease in the number of poverty (Y) in Jambi City in 2013-2022 is influenced by the variables of Economic Growth (X.
Unemployment (X.
Education (X.
While the remaining 3.
3% was explained by other variables that were not included in the study.
CONCLUSION
The results of the study show that crime in Jambi Province has a significant negative relationship with economic growth, unemployment, and education.
This means that declining economic growth, increasing unemployment, and low education tend to increase crime.
Among the three, education has the most UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH JAMBI
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The RA value of 96.
7% indicates that the three variables together have a great influence on the crime rate.
Based on the results of the study, the government needs to improve access and quality of education as a long-term effort to prevent crime.
Employment expansion and skills training must be optimized to reduce the unemployment rate.
Economic growth must be directed at improving the welfare of the community and conducting follow-up research should include other social variables for more comprehensive results.
BIBLIOGRAPHY