Bilangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika. Kebumian dan Angkasa Volume. 2 Nomor. 6, 2024 e-ISSN :3032-7113. p-ISSN :3032-6389. Hal 01-10 DOI : https://doi. org/10. 62383/bilangan. Available online at: https://journal. id/index. php/Bilangan The Use of The STEPWISE Method The Effect of Cultivated Area On Agricultural Production in Iraq Abbas Fadhil Kreah 1*. Ali Ghani Nori 2 Imam Al-Kadhim University College. Iraq Email : abbasf@iku. iq 1*, alinori@alkadhum-col. Abstract : One of the important problems addressed by researchers and specialists is the problem of agriculture and agricultural land and how to sustain or address them in the event that they need a certain treatment or work is being done to develop methods and agricultural tools and patterns used, which in turn affects production, and in this research has been working to study the impact of several factors on production and has been selected specific workers agricultural land, which is harvested land and affected land and total land and has Mathematical statistical methods were used in the analysis and the STIPWISE method of linear regression was used to determine the effect and any variables affecting and not affecting the dependent variable, which is agricultural production, and the results of the paper found that one of the variables does not affect the dependent variable, which is the harvested land variable. Opening Words: Harvested Land. Damaged Land . Total Land . Linear Regression INTRODUCTION Iraq is witnessing a variety of environmental and agricultural repercussions and many, most of which occur due to climatic and environmental changes, which affected the cultivated areas in Iraq and thus affected production, and researchers have addressed many studies and research on agriculture and agriculture is considered one of the important foundations in building civilizations and many countries are interested in agriculture, including India, which ranks second in the world in agriculture and is considered agriculture and related sectors such as Forestry and fisheries are responsible for 14. 5% of GDP and Indian agriculture is affected by various factors such as climate, due to topography, historical, geographical, biological, political, institutional, social and economic factors. Over time, there are differences in natural factors and the nature of technology, so policies change as well. Agricultural production is mostly influenced by environmental factors. The weather affects crop growth and development, causing significant variation in yields within the season. In addition, the spatial variation of soil properties, which react to the weather, causes spatial yield variability. Agricultural crop management that includes cultivation, fertilizer application, irrigation, plowing, etc. , can be used to compensate for the loss of yield due to weather impacts. Assessing climate change impacts cannot ignore simultaneous changes in the socio-economic context Ae the climate change context Ae because these changes may amplify or limit the impacts of climate change. The long time horizon of climate change and the difficulties of predicting even short-term social and economic changes means that the development of scenario approaches is widely Received: Oktober 12, 2024. Revised: Oktober 28, 2024. Accepted: November 17, 2024. Published November 19, 2024 The Use of The STEPWISE Method The Effect of Cultivated Area On Agricultural Production in Iraq used in many sciences . hysical, economic, and socia. in a variety of circumstances and for different purposes. Mishra et al. , 2016 ( Abildtrup et al. , 2006 On the European side, the conversion of natural forests into pastures in the humid tropics of Central America has been criticized as the main cause of deforestation. Livestock, which are widely raised in tropical pastures with low nutritional values, labor inputs and low capital, exploit those nutrients accumulated in the soil by native plants. However, large-scale livestock production is an important activity in the rural economy due to its comparative advantages over other forms of production. Agricultural as its costs are low ( Yamamoto et al. , 2007 The ratio between agricultural inputs and outputs constitutes agricultural productivity and in agriculture crop yields are measured by the degree of yield per unit area of cultivated land and seeds produced from the same crop and the reasons for the low productivity of agriculture are the human factor i. lack of training and efficiency among farmers, the huge number of people and traditional methods of farming, soil problems, pests, diseases, weak livestock, lack of credit facilities and inadequate irrigation facilities, unreliable monsoons, and improper marketing. for crops etc. To understand a country's economic development, monitoring crop yield conditions is absolutely essential. Crop yields have a direct impact on national and international economies annually, and projected yields play an important role in food management. Predicting the yield of planting before harvest is very useful , this process helps farmers plan their future activities. (Niranjan & Aradhya, 2. LITERARY REVIEW The study by Abildtrupa and others revolved around the study on economic and social scenarios that are carried out by analyzing the impact of climate change on European agricultural land use and the scenarios are clarified from the reports described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and climate emission scenarios. ( Abildtrup et , 2006 While the study presented by Wataru Yamamoto et al. studied intensive livestock productivity and the impact of grazing areas on productivity, the aim of the study was to determine the effects in grazing areas on production in dual-purpose livestock farms in subhumid lowlands. ( Yamamoto et al. , 2007 Jianqiang Ren et al. aimed to test the suitability of the method based on expected crop yield to estimate crop yields using the MODIS-NDVI model and using data using the MODISNDVI model. Ren et al. , 2008 BILANGAN - VOLUME. 2 NOMOR. 6, 2024 e-ISSN :3032-7113. p-ISSN :3032-6389. Hal 01-10 Justin A. Ainsworth et al. studied the effect of pasture shade and farm management on milk production and individual body weight of dual-purpose cows in six forestry pastoral farms in Rivas Province in Nicaragua. ( Ainsworth et al. , 2012 Researcher Jianshu Lv et al. also worked on the study of Knowledge of spatial changes of heavy metals in soils and their relationships to environmental factors is important for human impact assessment and soil management . Topsoil from Rizhao City, eastern China with urbanization and rapid industrialization was analyzed for six key heavy metals and was described by parent material and land use using GIS-based data. et al. , 2013 While Ruisheng Li and others have shown that China's grain production has reached nineteen consecutive harvests, uncertainty about the current domestic and international environment has put more pressure on future grain production increases Over the past few years, agricultural socialization services have been crucial in boosting grain production and farmers' revenues by addressing the issue of land cultivation and farming methods. , 2024 Li et While the research presented a study on cultivated and harvested land and total and its impact on agricultural production and used linear sequential regression, which between which variables have an impact and the variable that has no effect, and this is what distinguished the research from previous research . MATHEMATICAL MODEL Sequential steps method: Edam Udokang , 2020 This method is used to choose the best regression model If we assume that we have independent variables (X1,X2,. ,X. and that the response variable . is (Y), the sequential step method aims to choose the best model that contains the independent variables affecting Y and exclude the unimportant variables . ot significant effective ). Thus, obtaining the appropriate model that gives more accurate conclusions and predictions for the value of the dependent variable and this is done by calculating a series of regressions and on steps and through these steps the independent variable that enters the model is selected on the basis of the strength of its association with the dependent variable. As for installing or deleting this chosen variable in the model, it is done by testingF, and the steps of working in this way can be summarized as follows : The Use of The STEPWISE Method The Effect of Cultivated Area On Agricultural Production in Iraq First Step: In it, the independent variable that enters the model is selected by finding the simple correlation matrix of the independent variables with the dependent variable and X1, which is the owner of the largest simple correlation coefficient . egative or positiv. Its introduction into the proposed regression model is: [Y= XyuEya yuEya1 E. To test the significance of the effect of the presence of the independent variable X1 in the model. F1 is extracted where: F1=MSR(X. /MSE=b12. -xO)2/MSE. If the result is : 1- F1>Ftab, this means that the variable X1 has a non-significant effect on the model, so X1 is excluded from the model and then we stop taking the other steps and the final model is as Y=Bo Ei. 2- If F1