Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Pendidikan (JISIP) Vol.
8 No.
2 Maret 2024 e-ISSN : 2656-6753, p-ISSN: 2598-9944 DOI: 10.
58258/jisip.
6735/http://ejournal.
org/index.
php/JISIP/index Analysis of the Effect of Population on Unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 Muhammad Habibullah Aminy Universitas Islam Al-Azhar Article Info Article history:
Received : 16 February 2024 Publish : 06 March 2024 Keywords:
Population.
Unemployment.
West Lombok Regency Info Artikel Article history:
Diterima : 16 Februari 2024 Publis : 06 Maret 2024 Abstract This research is entitled "Analysis of the Effect of Population on Unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021".
In this study, researchers wanted to see how the population compared to unemployment in West Lombok Regency from 2012-2021.
This type of research is quantitative research with an associative approach.
The analytical tool used in this research is simple linear regression analysis.
The results of this research are an R-square value of 0.
545 with a significance value () or alpha of 0.
%).
The R-square value in this study has meaning, namely that the influence of the population variable is able to explain the unemployment variable in West Lombok Regency by 54.
That is, partially the influence of the independent variable population size on unemployment in West Lombok Regency is not significant.
This is indicated by the calculated T value being greater than the T table value.
T calculated < T table (T calculated 0.
737 > T table 2.
Abstrak Penelitian ini berjudul AuAnalisis Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pengangguran Di Kabupaten Lombok Barat Tahun 2012-2021Ay.
Dalam penelitian ini peneliti ingin melihat bagaimana jumlah penduduk terhadap pengangguran di Kabupaten Lombok Barat dari tahun 2012-2021.
Adapun jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian Kuantitatif dengan pendekatan asosiatif.
Adapun alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis regresi linier sederhana.
Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah nilai R-square sebesar nilai sebesar 0,545 dengan nilai signifikansi () atau alpha sebesar 0.
%).
Nilai R-square dalam penelitian ini memiliki makna yakni pengaruh dari variabel jumlah penduduk mampu menjelaskan variabel pengangguran di Kabupaten Lombok Barat sebesar 54,5% Bahwa secara parsial pengaruh dari variabel independen jumlah penduduk terhadap pengangguran di Kabupaten Lombok Barat tidak signifikan.
Hal ini ditandai oleh nilai T hitung lebih besar dari nilai T tabel T hitung < T tabel ( T hitung 0,737 > T tabel 2,.
This is an open access article under the Lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi-BerbagiSerupa 4.
Internasional Corresponding Author: habibamin22@gmail.
Muhammad Habibullah Aminy Universitas Islam Al-Azhar Email: habibamin22@gmail.
INTRODUCTION
West Lombok Regency is one of the regions in West Nusa Tenggara Province.
West Lombok Regency consists of 10 sub-districts.
The population of West Lombok Regency based on the 2020 population census is 704,586 people.
Regarding the population description of West Lombok Regency from 2012-2021, it is as follows:
Table of Population of West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 1273 | Analysis of the Effect of Population on Unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 (Muhammad Habibullah Amin.
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Pendidikan (JISIP) e-ISSN : 2656-6753, p-ISSN: 2598-9944 From the data above, the population of West Lombok Regency continues to increase from The average increase during 2012-2021 is 1.
In terms of growth rate, there was a decline in the population growth rate in West Lombok Regency during the 2012-2021 period, an average of 4.
This is an effort made by the West Lombok Regency government to reduce the rate of population growth.
The problem of unemployment is also experienced by all districts/cities in Indonesia, including unemployment which occurs in West Lombok Regency.
It is interesting to observe that West Lombok Regency is one of the regencies that has various types of adequate infrastructure, in terms of health facilities, education and various other facilities.
Willbut in reality the unemployment rate in West Lombok Regency is still very high.
The following is a table of the number of unemployed in West Lombok Regency from 20112-2021.
Table of Unemployment Numbers in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 From the data above, the number of unemployed in West Lombok Regency from 2012-2021 experienced fluctuations, decreased or increased.
The highest percentage of unemployed occurred in 2013, namely 5.
25% of the total population or as big as 32,739 people.
Furthermore, there was an increase in the number of unemployed in 2021, namely 4.
58% or 32,270 people, this is the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic which caused economic degradation and thus had an impact on the number of unemployed.
RESEARCH METHOD
This type of research is quantitative with an associative approach.
Associative research is a method for seeing the relationship or connection between one variable and other variables.
(Sugiono: 2.
This research uses a simple linear regression analysis method, the software used to estimate is SPSS 23.
In the regression model, the independent variable explains the dependent variable.
In multiple regression analysis, the relationship between variables is linear, where changes in variable X will be followed by constant changes in variable Y.
Meanwhile, in a non-linear relationship, changes in variable X are not followed by changes in variable y proportionally.
in the quadratic model, the change in x is followed by the square of the variable x.
Such a 1274 | Analysis of the Effect of Population on Unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 (Muhammad Habibullah Amin.
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Pendidikan (JISIP) e-ISSN : 2656-6753, p-ISSN: 2598-9944 relationship is not linear.
Mathematically, the multiple linear regression analysis model can be described as follows (Alkadri.
Y = a b1X1 e
Y = is the Unemployment variable in West Lombok Regency a = is the intercept or constant
b1, = is the regression coefficient or slope
X = is the population variable in West Lombok Regency e = isresidual or error
RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In this research, researchers will conduct a study on the influence of population on open unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021.
In this research, the independent variable used is the number of unemployed, while the independent variable is the population.
The data model used in this research is time series data, namely from 2012-2021.
The analytical tool used in this research is a regression analysis tool, namely the SPSS 23 software tool.
The results of this research are as follows:
Table 3 Coefficient of Linear Regression Results The table above is the result of multiple linear regression coefficients using the SPSS 23 software tool.
In connection with the results of the regression coefficients, the following regression equation can be formed:
Y =4.
034 X e Based on results of equation, then the interpretation of the equation is as follows:
The constant for unemployment is4,794This means that if the population variable does not increase .
or is equal to zero from 2012-2021, then the variable number of unemployed in West Lombok Regency is 4,794 units.
From the results of this equation, the figure for the coefficient of the population variable in West Lombok Regency is obtained0.
034, meaning that if there is an increase of every 1% of the population, the number of unemployed increases by 0.
034 units.
Statistical Test Results (Hypothesi.
Coefficient of Determination Results (R2 Tes.
The coefficient of determination (RA) is used to find out to what extent the percentage of variation in the dependent variable in the model can be explained by the independent variable (Gujarati, 2.
Where if the RA value is close to 1 then there is a strong and close relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variable and the use of this model is according to Gujarati .
the coefficient of determination is to find out how big the percentage contribution of the independent variable is to the dependent variable which can be expressed as a percentage.
However, it cannot be denied that there are times when using 1275 | Analysis of the Effect of Population on Unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 (Muhammad Habibullah Amin.
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Pendidikan (JISIP) e-ISSN : 2656-6753, p-ISSN: 2598-9944 the coefficient of determination (RA) there is a bias towards one independent variable included in the model.
As a measure of the suitability of the regression line to the data distribution.
R2 faces problems because it does not take into account degrees of freedom.
As an alternative, corrected or adjusted RA is used.
Related to this research, after estimation was carried out using SPSS 23 software, the R2 results were obtained as seen in the table below.
Table 4 Research R-square test results Adjusted Std.
Error of Model R Square Square the Estimate ,623a Source: Attachment data processed Based on the table above regarding the R-square test results for the independent variable against the dependent variable, the results or values obtained are:0.
545with a significance value () or alpha of 0.
%).
The R-square value in this research has meaning, namely that the influence of the population variable is able to explain the unemployment variable in West Lombok Regency0.
545one unit or 54.
5%, and this figure shows a fairly large influence and meets the regression criteria.
Meanwhile, the remainder is influenced by other variables not included in this research, amounting to 45.
5%, namely variables, the amount of investment and the availability of business fields in West Lombok Regency in an effort to absorb labor so as to reduce the number of unemployed.
Partial Test (T Tes.
of Independent Variables The partial test .
-tes.
is used to see how the independent variable influences the dependent variable individually.
Hypothesis used:
H0: = 0, indicating that the independent variable has no real effect on the dependent H1: O 0, indicating that the independent variable has a significant effect on the dependent variable.
If t count > t table then reject H0 which means statistically independent variable has a significant effect on the dependent variable.
On the other hand, if t count < t table then we accept H0 which is statistically significant independent variable has no significant effect on the dependent variable.
From the test results using the SPSS 23 software tool, the results obtained for the calculated T value are as shown in the table below.
T-test results table Standardized Coefficients Beta
1,599
Sig.
Source: Attachment data processed From the table above, the calculated T value for the population variable is In relation to this t count, this is a hypothesis built in this research, namely partial influence.
Related to the meaning of the calculated T value in this research is as follows.
1276 | Analysis of the Effect of Population on Unemployment in West Lombok Regency 2012-2021 (Muhammad Habibullah Amin.
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Pendidikan (JISIP) e-ISSN : 2656-6753, p-ISSN: 2598-9944 That from the estimated results of the calculated T value for the population variable in West Lombok Regency, the calculated T value is0.
737, whereas the level of significance of the influence of the population variable in West Lombok Regency on unemployment, the calculated T value must be compared with the T table value, if the calculated T value is > than T table then the influence of the population number variable is significant, but vice versa if the calculated T value is < than T table value means the influence of the population variable on unemployment in West Lombok Regency is not significant.
In this study, it is known that the significance value used or the alpha level is 5% .
while the value for the T table is located at degree of freedom 1 .
meaning the T table value in this study is 2.
This means that looking at the comparison between the calculated T value and the T table value is T calculated < the T table value (T calculated 0.
737 > T table 2.
, so the influence of the population variable in West Lombok Regency is not significant.
This is not significant because the variables in this study only include population size, because unemployment is influenced by the availability of jobs and investment.
And these two variables were not included in this research, so they had an impact on the results of the regression analysis so that the effect was not significant.
Interpretation of Research Results After conducting a regression analysis in this research using the SPSS 23 software tool, we obtained the influence of the population variable on unemployment in West Lombok Regency from 2012-2021.
That the population variable has a positive but not significant influence on unemployment in West Lombok Regency.
This means that if there is an increase in population it will have an impact on the number of unemployed, but the effect is not significant in increasing the number of unemployed in West Lombok Regency.
This is because there are several other variables that have a big influence in influencing the number of unemployed in West Lombok Regency, but are not included in this research, such as the amount of investment and the availability of employment opportunities.
CONCLUSION
Providing a statement that what is expected, as stated in the "Introduction" chapter, can ultimately result in the "Results and Discussion" chapter, so that there is a match.
Apart from that, prospects for developing research results and application prospects can also be added further research .
ased on results and discussio.
BIBLIOGRAPHY